Defying what is usually a poor trend in run-offs for incumbent Southern politicians forced into a secondary election, Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) recorded a 51.3% victory Saturday night to win a second term over GOP developer Eddie Rispone. Though polling correctly showed a tight race, the latest surveys suggested that the trend might be favoring a Rispone upset. The Governor’s superior organization was able to capitalize on his strength in New Orleans and Baton Rouge, while keeping Rispone’s margin down in some of the key Republican strongholds.
Yesterday, we reported on the new Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy survey (11/5-7; 625 LA likely voters) that found Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) holding a mere 48-46% edge over Baton Rouge developer Eddie Rispone (R). The latest Cygnal Poll (11/7-9; 800 LA likely voters), released yesterday, derives a similar margin. This survey finds the Governor leading Mr. Rispone, 50-48%. Though Mr. Edwards returns to the 50% plateau, it is clear that this contest, to be decided this Saturday, is going down to the wire.
Still another survey reports more data in the same realm and confirms the other results. Edgewater Research (11/11; 661 LA likely voters) sees the race as a dead heat, with both candidates registering 49% support.
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy just completed a new survey of the upcoming Louisiana Governor’s run-off election that will be decided this Saturday, November 16th. According to the M-D data (11/5-7; 625 LA likely voters), a toss-up situation still exists within four days before the final vote. The ballot test shows Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) holding a mere 48-46% edge over Baton Rouge developer Eddie Rispone (R). This poll is significant because it places the Governor under 50% for only the second time in the run-off. In the jungle primary, Gov. Edwards managed to earn just 46.6% of the vote, thus necessitating this secondary election.
The Louisiana Governor’s run-off election featuring incumbent John Bel Edwards (D) and Baton Rouge developer Eddie Rispone (R) will be decided shortly, on November 16th. Two polls were just released, one from Baton Rouge-based JMC Analytics (10/24-26; 600 LA likely voters) and the other from Edgewater Research (10/28; 722 LA likely voters). Both find the exact same result: Edwards leading Rispone, 50-47%. This tells us that the candidates will enter the stretch drive in toss-up mode.
The We Ask America polling firm released the first Bayou State gubernatorial general election political survey featuring the Gov. John Bel Edwards – Eddie Rispone race, which will be decided Nov. 16th. Those who surmised before the election that if the Governor were forced into a run-off, we would see a very competitive campaign appear to be correct, and the WAA poll (10/14-16; 600 LA likely 2019 general election voters) confirms such speculation. According to their results, the two candidates are already tied at 47% apiece.
Gov. Edwards defeated then-Senator David Vitter (R) to win the Governorship in 2015 but failed to even reach 47% in the 2019 jungle primary. Under Louisiana election law, all candidates are placed on the same ballot and if any one receives majority support, that individual is elected outright. Should no one reach 50%, as was the case on Oct. 12th, the top two finishers, in this case Gov. Edwards (D) and developer Rispone (R), advance to a run-off election.
While late race polling suggested that Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) had a chance to win re-election outright, he was instead sent into a November 16th run-off election with Republican businessman Eddie Rispone. In the jungle primary contest, Mr. Edwards finished with 46.6% of the vote, ahead of Mr. Rispone’s 27.4% and US Rep. Ralph Abraham’s (R-Alto/Monroe) 23.6%.
Turnout exceeded 1.35 million voters, a 20.6% increase over the 2015 jungle primary. We can now expect a highly competitive run-off campaign. No Governor forced into a run-off has previously won re-election in Louisiana history.
Though polling is in agreement that Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) will finish first in Saturday’s jungle primary and could potentially win outright, the early voting returns suggest that the Republicans are demonstrating under-stated strength. Looking at the early voting returns, which are already much higher than in any previous Bayou State election, Republicans may be running almost even with the Governor. At this point, 381,669 ballots have been returned according to the Secretary of State and Democrats have only a 43.6 – 41.4% edge in returned votes. In 2015, the grand total early vote number was 270,144, and the Democratic edge in that election was a strong 52.3 – 34.4%. These numbers give the GOP hope that their candidates can force Gov. Edwards into a November 16th run-off election by keeping him under 50% support.
Election Day is Saturday, and Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) continues to knock on the 50% door. If he reaches majority support, the Governor will be elected outright for a second term. According to yesterday’s released Market Research Insights poll (10/1-7; 600 LA likely gubernatorial voters), Gov. Edwards would record 51% preference.
Rep. Ralph Abraham (R-Alto/Monroe) and real estate developer Eddie Rispone are in a dogfight for second position, but that may be irrelevant if the Governor wins outright. Should Edwards fall short, the top two finishers would advance to a November 16th run-off election. After holding second place for most of the campaign cycle, Rep. Abraham had recently fallen behind Mr. Rispone. According to this MRI poll, however, the two are tied at 19%, apiece.
The October 12th jungle primary election day is this Saturday, and the candidates are making a final dash to the finish line. Two new polls find the race hasn’t changed much. The data suggests that Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) is hovering around the 50% mark, but no poll shows him winning majority support. Doing so would elect him outright to a second term. If no one reaches 50% a run-off election will be held November 16th.
Both JMC Enterprises and Mason-Dixon Research & Strategy are returning new numbers from the polling field. JMC (10/2-5; 600 LA likely primary voters) sees Gov. Edwards at 47% support followed by developer Eddie Rispone with 22% and US Rep. Ralph Abraham (R-Alto/Monroe) obtaining 19% preference. Mason-Dixon sees similar results. Their poll (10/1-4; 625 LA likely primary voters) projects Gov. Edwards with 45%, Rispone recording an identical 22% as found in the JMC data, and Rep. Abraham dropping to 17% support.
M-D tested potential run-offs featuring Gov. Edwards with both Rispone and Abraham. Against the businessman, Gov. Edwards would lead 51-42%. If Rep. Abraham were his general run-off opponent, Mr. Edwards’ advantage grows to 51-38%. The big question for Saturday is whether the Governor will exceed the 50% plateau. If not, the ensuing run-off election has the potential of becoming quite interesting.
Confirming other recent data, the We Ask America research organization polled the Louisiana electorate for the upcoming October 12th gubernatorial jungle primary. The survey (9/24-26; 600 LA likely gubernatorial primary voters) again finds Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) hovering around the 50% mark but not quite reaching the majority plateau. He scores 47% according to WAA.
In second now is developer Eddie Rispone who has pulled ahead of Rep. Ralph Abraham (R-Alto/Monroe) for second position as this and other polls report. Second place is important because that individual will advance to a secondary run-off election on November 16th if Gov. Edwards fails to reach majority support in the October vote.
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