Two Senate races were called yesterday, one for Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) who scored a 51-42% victory over state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D-Freeport). Ms. Gideon conceded the race yesterday even though the count had not ended. In Michigan, Sen. Gary Peters (D) was projected with a very close win (49.6 – 48.5%) over GOP challenger John James.
The two calls mean that the high number for the Republican majority is 52, with the Democratic maximum being 51. The most likely outcome from the current trends and potentially projecting the runoff election under what may be a Biden victory at the presidential level is either a Republican majority of 51 or 52 seats.
In the House, 40 races remain uncalled, yet many of them are now reporting 100% of the vote being received. Of the 40, the Republicans lead in 25 and the Democrats in 15. This would translate in a Republican net gain in the House of most likely between five and nine seats.
Below is a list of the races that remain uncalled and which candidate is currently leading.
Alaska: Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) - Status: 62.3%; Reporting: 50%
Georgia-A: Sen. David Perdue (R) - must reach 50%; Status: 50.2%; Reporting: 97%
Georgia-B: Rev. Raphael Warnock (D) - Status: 32.5%; Reporting: 96%
Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) - Status: 26.2%; Reporting: Runoff
Maine: Sen. Susan Collins (R) - Winner; Status: 51.1%
Michigan: Sen. Gary Peters (D) - Winner; Status: 49.6%
North Carolina: Sen. Thom Tillis (R) - Status: 48.7%; Reporting: 93%
AK-AL: Rep. Don Young (R) - Status: 63.3%; Reporting: 53%
AZ-1: Rep. Tom O'Halleran (D) - Status: 52.1%; Reporting: 92%
AZ-6: Hiral Tipirneni (D) - Status: 50.3%; Reporting: 76%
CA-4: Rep. Tom McClintock (R) - Status: 52.9%; Reporting: 87%
CA-8: Jay Obernolte (R) - Status: 53.3%; Reporting: 37%
CA-21: David Valadao (R) - Status: 51.4%; Reporting: 42%
CA-25: Christy Smith (D) - Status: 50.3%; Reporting: 77%
CA-39: Young Kim (R) - Status: 50.2%; Reporting: 89%
CA-48: Michelle Steel (R) - Status: 50.3%; Reporting: 93%
CA-50: Darrell Issa (R) - Status: 52.2%; Reporting: 51%
GA-7: Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) - Status: 51.2%; Reporting: 100%
IA-2: Marianette Miller-Meeks (R) - Status: 50.0%; Reporting: 100%
IL-14: Jim Oberweis (R) - Status: 50.1%; Reporting: 100%
IL-17: Cheri Bustos (D) - Status: 51.8%; Reporting: 100%
IN-5: Victoria Spartz (R) - Status: 50.2%; Reporting: 99%
MI-3: Peter Meijer (R) - Status: 53.1%; Reporting: 99%
MI-5: Dan Kildee (D) - Status: 54.3%; Reporting: 100%
MI-11: Haley Stevens (D) - Status: 50.0%; Reporting: 97%
MN-1: Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R) - Status: 48.6%; Reporting: 100%
MN-2: Rep. Angie Craig (D) - Status: 48.2%; Reporting: 100%
NJ-2: Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R) - Status: 51.0%; Reporting: 75%
NV-3: Rep. Susie Lee (D) - Status: 48.2%; Reporting: 85%
NV-4: Rep. Steven Horsford (D) - Status: 49.7%; Reporting: 65%
NY-1: Rep. Lee Zeldin (R) - Status: 61.3%; Reporting: 99%
NY-2: Andrew Garbarino (R) - Status: 58.1%; Reporting: 99%
NY-3: George Santos (R) - Status: 50.5%; Reporting: 99%
NY-4: Rep. Kathleen Rice (D) - Status: 52.0%; Reporting: 100%
NY-11: Nicole Malliotakis (R) - Status: 57.9%; Reporting: 95%
NY-18: Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D) - Status: 50.8%; Reporting: 100%
NY-19: Rep. Antonio Delgado (D) - Status: 51.3%; Reporting: 98%
NY-22: Claudia Tenney (R) - Status: 54.9%; Reporting: 100%
NY-24: Rep. John Katko (R) - Status: 58.5%; Reporting: 100%
PA-7: Lisa Scheller (R) - Status: 50.7%; Reporting: 86%
PA-8: Jim Bognet (R) - Status: 50.5%; Reporting: 86%
PA-10: Rep. Scott Perry (R) - Status: 54.9%; Reporting: 89%
PA-17: Sean Parnell (R) - Status: 51.0%; Reporting: 94%
TX-24: Beth Van Duyne (R) - Status: 48.8%; Reporting: 99%
UT-4: Rep. Ben McAdams (D) - Status: 48.2%; Reporting: 69%
VA-7: Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) - Status: 50.6%; Reporting: 100%
WA-3: Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) - Status: 54.7%; Reporting: 80%
The closing polls have established a trend in most places, but the Iowa numbers are still bouncing between Sen. Joni Ernst (R) and challenger Theresa Greenfield (D). The Des Moines Register Poll has proven most accurate in measuring Iowa voters, and their final 2020 survey (Selzer & Company; 10/26-29; 814 IA likely voters; live interview) shows Sen. Ernst holding a 46-42% lead. Insider Advantage (10/30; 400 IA likely voters) finds a similar 51-45% Ernst advantage.
Conversely, Public Policy Polling (11/1-2; 871 IA voters; interactive voice response system) sees a slight edge for Ms. Greenfield as does Change Research (10/29-11/1; 1,084 IA likely voters; online), both posting 48-47% splits.
Monmouth University conducted a recent Iowa statewide poll but did so by testing each of their four congressional districts individually.
Monmouth’s registered voters’ poll, which tends to reflect a mid-level turnout pattern, finds Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D-Dubuque) holding a 52-44% edge over state Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Cedar Rapids) in the eastern 1st District, former state Senator Rita Hart (D) posting a 49-43% lead over state Senator and former congressional candidate Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) in the open 2nd District, Rep. Cindy Axne (D-Des Moines) posting a 53-42% mark over former Congressman David Young (R) in southwestern District 3, and state Sen. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux County) leading Democrat J.D. Scholten, 48-42%, in the open western 4th CD. Other firms find all of the races, with the exception of District 4, as polling much closer.
At the beginning of August, Monmouth University found freshman Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D-Dubuque) leading former television news anchor Ashley Hinson (R) by a ten-point margin, 51-41%. Now, Basswood Research, polling for the Congressional Leadership Fund (9/26-28; 400 IA-1 likely voters; live interview), projects a major race status change as their survey result shows the two candidates tied at 45-45%. The 1st District has been competitive since the 2014 election, and it appears this pattern will continue in the closing stages of the current campaign.
Monmouth University went into the field to survey the Hawkeye State vote and divided the large sampling universe into segments for purposes of testing each of the state’s four congressional districts. The survey (7/25-8/3; 1,665 IA registered voters; 400 via live interview and 1,265 online; congressional district sample sizes were not released) finds two Democrats and a pair of Republicans leading in the four districts.
In the 1st, and all of the succeeding reported numbers are under the high voter turnout model, freshman Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D-Dubuque) leads Cedar Rapids state Rep. Ashley Hinson (R), 52-41%. In the 2nd, and confirming an earlier Harper Polling survey that found the race tight, state Sen. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Ottumwa) holds a slight edge over former state Senator and 2018 Lt. Governor nominee Rita Hart (D), 48-44%. Third District freshman Rep. Cindy Axne (D-Des Moines) records a 50-42% advantage over former US Rep. David Young (R). In the western 4th CD, state Sen. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull), who defeated Rep. Steve King (R-Kiron) in the June GOP primary, is establishing a large lead over 2018 Democratic nominee J.D. Scholten, 55-34%.
After five consecutive Iowa statewide post-primary surveys found Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield edging Sen. Joni Ernst (R) by 2-3 percentage points, the new Monmouth University poll (7/30-8/3; 401 IA likely voters) shows the incumbent holding the same small lead, 48-45%. The Iowa race is part of the four-state Republican majority firewall that includes Alabama, Maine, and Montana. All four races are must-win GOP contests if the party is to hold their tenuous Senate majority.
In a surprising result, the Congressional Leadership Fund has released a poll of Iowa’s open 2nd District that sees former state Senator and 2018 Lt. Governor nominee Rita Hart (D) tied with Republican state Senator Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Ottumwa), who is in fourth congressional campaign. The Harper Polling survey (7/26-28; 406 IA-2 likely general election voters) finds the two candidates tied with 41% support apiece.
Rep. David Loebsack (D-Iowa City) is retiring after seven terms and he averaged 54.1% of the vote in his six re-election contests. President Trump, however, carried the 2nd District, 49-45%, in 2016. Though we see a close race brewing, Ms. Hart has a huge cash-on-hand financial lead, $1.385 million to $506,000.
Spry Strategies, as part of their national survey series, tested the Iowa Senate race as many other pollsters have done previously. According to the Spry data (7/11-16; 701 IA likely general election voters), Sen. Joni Ernst, in a must-win situation for Republicans, continues to slightly trail her Democratic opponent, Des Moines real estate executive Theresa Greenfield (D). The Spry data finds the Greenfield edge to be 45-43%, well within the polling margin of error that has been consistent with all Iowa post-primary surveys.
Before Spry, the Democratic polling firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, during the June 23-28 period, found the pair separated by the same two-point spread, 49-47%, again in Ms. Greenfield’s favor.
In 2018, Democrat Cindy Axne unseated then-Rep. David Young (R) by a two-point margin, 49-47%. A new Tarrance Group survey (7/7-9; 400 IA-3 likely voters) sees an equally close race again developing this year. According to the Tarrance findings, Mr. Young posts a 44-43% slight edge over Rep. Axne, which is similar to their March survey that found the two candidates locked in a 48-48% tie.
The Civiqs survey research organization, polling for the Daily Kos Elections website (6/6-8; 865 IA registered voters), finds new Democratic nominee Theresa Greenfield jumping out to a 48-45% edge over Sen. Joni Ernst (R). These numbers are similar to the post-June 2nd primary poll from Public Policy Polling that found Greenfield up 45-43%. The Iowa race clearly begins in toss-up mode.
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