The 1892 polling organization, which first captured national attention this year with a correct prediction in the CA-25 special election that saw Republican retired fighter pilot Mike Garcia defeat Democratic state Assemblywoman Christy Smith (D-Newhall/Santa Clarita), released a new South Florida survey yesterday testing freshman Rep. Donna Shalala (D-Miami) and Spanish language news reporter and 2018 congressional nominee Maria Elvira Salazar (R). Their poll (9/2-6; 400 FL-27 likely voters) surprisingly finds Ms. Salazar, who lost the 2018 election, 52-46%, now leading Rep. Shalala, 46-43%. This is becoming a race to watch for November.
A number of polls were conducted over the Labor Day period and we generally see a closing of the presidential race. In Florida, NBC News/Marist College (8/31-9/6; 1,047 FL registered voters; 766 likely voters; live interview) discovers President Trump forging ahead to record a one-point, 48-47%, edge among registered voters, while he and former Vice President Joe Biden are tied at 48% among likely voters.
Turning to another swing state, Michigan, the Glengariff Group (9/1-3; 600 MI likely voters) finds Mr. Biden leading 47-42%, which is a closer spread than seen in most current surveys. The latest three polls from the international research firm Redfield & Wilton Strategies, Hodas & Associates, and Morning Consult, all of which conducted studies between August 11th and September 3rd, projected Mr. Biden to leads of 11, 11, and 10 points, respectively. A pair of new Pennsylvania surveys also see the contest closing. Redfield & Wilton Strategies, the London, England based firm (8/30-9/3; 1,053 PA likely voters; online), found a five-point spread, with Mr. Biden up 47-42%. Local Pennsylvania research firm Susquehanna Polling & Research (8/26-9/4; 498 PA likely voters; live interview) sees the margin between the two national candidates dropping to two points, 44-42%, again in Mr. Biden’s favor. Still closing, but in a reversed manner, We Ask America (9/1-3; 500 MO likely voters; live interview) projects that President Trump’s Missouri advantage over Mr. Biden is dropping to five percentage points, 49-45%. This, while the same sampling universe detects an expanding margin for Gov. Mike Parson (R) in his election battle with State Auditor Nicole Galloway. That contest is breaking 54-41% in Mr. Parson’s favor. For the past several weeks, the Trafalgar Group has been attempting to quantify the number of “shy Trump voters” in their studies – those preferring President Trump but won’t say so – leading to accusations that their polls are outliers. Their latest release comes in Florida. In this case, however, the Trafalgar formula is not particularly out of step with other recent Sunshine State surveys.
According to TG’s findings (9/1-3; 1,022 FL likely voters), President Trump has captured the lead over former Vice President Joe Biden in this most important of electoral states, 49-46%. The previous two Florida polls, from Quinnipiac University and Morning Consult, gave Mr. Biden leads of three and two points, respectively. Within the same time frame, the Democracy Institute released numbers yielding President Trump a three point, 47-44%, edge. In all four of these polls, both nominees recorded support figures between 44 and 49 percent, once again leading to another toss-up Florida projection. The first published poll for the Rep. Vern Buchanan-state Rep. Margaret Good (D) campaign has been released, and it brings favorable news for the Sarasota area’s seven-term US House incumbent. According to the Data Targeting firm, Rep. Buchanan has established a 51-35% lead over Ms. Good.
The results find Mr. Buchanan’s 51% support figure running ahead of President Trump’s 47% and is three points better than the Republican generic figure. Ms. Good reports raising almost $1.8 million for her effort and held over $1 million in her campaign account at the July 29th pre-primary campaign finance reporting deadline. St. Pete Polls has just released their first post-August 18th primary poll for the St. Petersburg anchored congressional district that former Gov. Charlie Crist (D) now represents. The survey (8/29-30; 2,160 FL-13 likely voters via automated response device) finds Rep. Crist leading new Republican nominee Anna Paulina Luna, a local businesswoman and US Air Force veteran, by a 55-39% count. The 13th District, fully contained within Pinellas County, leans Democratic and is one of the key competitive Florida congressional seats.
Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling released their latest of the Florida surveys (8/21-22; 671 FL voters) and finds former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Trump, 49-46%. Florida is a must-win state for President Trump, and polling has in the past predicted slight Democratic leads going into Election Day that resulted in close Republican wins for the most recent presidential, US Senate, and gubernatorial campaigns.
In the last ten Florida polls conducted in this 2020 campaign from the July 17 – August 22 period, Mr. Biden’s average lead has dropped to 3.2 percentage points. In the previous ten surveys, conducted from June 8th through July 21st, the Biden lead averaged just under seven percentage points. Further signs are occurring showing the presidential race getting closer. Democratic pollster Change Research just released a series of surveys in six crucial 2020 swing states, Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, during the August 21-23 period with sample sizes ranging from a low of 344 likely voters in Arizona to a high of 1,262 similarly chosen poll participants in Florida.
While CR projects former Vice President Joe Biden to be leading in all six states, at least four of which (AZ, FL, NC, and either MI, PA, or WI) are must-wins for President Trump, the Democratic nominee’s lead has dwindled to between one and six points in all of these places. Freshman Rep. Ross Spano (R-Lakeland) last night lost his re-nomination battle to Republican Scott Franklin, a Lakeland City Commissioner and retired Navy pilot. The unofficial vote totals give Mr. Franklin a 51-49% victory margin. Rep. Spano is under investigation for accepting improper loans during his 2018 campaign. He becomes the eighth sitting House member to be denied re-nomination in this election cycle. Mr. Franklin advances into the general election as the favorite to defeat new Democratic nominee Alan Cohn, a former television news anchorman. He topped state Rep. Adam Hattersley (D-Riverview) despite being outspent.
Former congressional aide Kat Cammack scored an upset win in the Republican primary and will replace retiring Reps. Ted Yoho (R-Gainesville), while state Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) looks to have won a close Republican primary and, assuming his 700+ vote holds through the final counting process, will succeed retiring two-term Rep. Francis Rooney (R-Naples). Both seats are safely Republican. The rest of the Florida primary resulted in wins for all of the favored House candidates. Nomination elections are occurring today in Alaska, Florida, and Wyoming. The Alaska federal elections are virtually set. Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) will face a challenge from Independent/Democrat Al Gross, an Anchorage surgeon. In the House race, at-large Rep. Don Young (R-Ft. Yukon) will officially find himself in a re-match with education reform activist Alyse Galvin (I/D). In 2018, Rep. Young was re-elected with a 53-46% victory margin.
In Florida, we see action in eight congressional districts including two Republican open seats that will nominate candidates certain to become prohibitive favorites to replace retiring Reps. Ted Yoho (R-Gainesville) and Francis Rooney (R-Naples). The open Wyoming Senate race will also be decided and former US Rep. Cynthia Lummis, armed with President Trump’s support, appears a lock to win both the Republican nomination tonight and the general election in November. St. Pete Polls (8/12; 594 FL-15 registered Republican voters; via automated telephone system) tested the upcoming Florida primary election contest between freshman Republican US Rep. Ross Spano (R-Dover/Lakeland) and Lakeland City Commissioner Scott Franklin. Rep. Spano has been under a cloud since being investigated for administering inappropriate political loans during his 2018 general election campaign. The St. Pete results find Rep. Spano leading Mr. Franklin by a scant 42-41% margin. The poll suggests that this could be an interesting primary on Tuesday night.
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