After the Colorado Ethics Commission found former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) in violation of two ethics provisions during his tenure as the state’s Governor, trends have taken a downturn in his US Senate campaign. Apparently, internal polling must be showing Mr. Hickenlooper falling into a close race for Tuesday’s Democratic primary against former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff.
The progressive left Senate Majority PAC just put down a $1 million media buy in order to improve Mr. Hickenlooper’s image after the Ethics Commission ruling. Suddenly, what was a mundane primary affair coming this Tuesday is beginning to draw more attention. CNN conducted a nationwide political poll (5/7-10; 1,112 US adults; 1,001 registered voters; 302 over sample in 15 battleground states) and compared the national results to those found in 15 battleground states. The latter group included the typical swing states like Florida, North Carolina, Michigan, and Wisconsin, but also added Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia, places where former Vice President Joe Biden has developed significant leads.
On the national count, as found in most other polls, Mr. Biden leads President Trump, 51-46%, but the numbers are virtually reversed, 52-45%, in Mr. Trump’s favor within the all-important battleground states. The Colorado Democratic Senate ballot has become a political football with several candidates filing lawsuits to reduce the number of petition signatures required due to the COVID-19 precautions, while previously disqualified candidates attempted to obtain ballot placement through court decree.
What began as twelve candidates looking to run for the Democratic nomination to oppose Sen. Cory Gardner (R) is now down to two official contenders for the June 30th primary: former Gov. John Hickenlooper and ex-state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff. With the courts finally making definitive rulings, the ballot is now set. The same Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs survey (5/1-3; 800 CO likely general election voters) that was cited above in the presidential race section also returns big numbers for former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) over Sen. Cory Gardner (R). The results find Mr. Hickenlooper with a big 55-36% advantage. Another survey, from Montana State University (4/10-19; 503 CO residents; 400 CO likely general election voters), finds Hickenlooper’s lead to be 48-31%.
Though Mr. Hickenlooper is still in a primary contest with former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D), neither poll tested the latter man against Sen. Gardner. Obviously, Colorado is a major conversion opportunity for the Democrats. A Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs survey (5/1-3; 800 CO likely general election voters) finds that former Vice President Joe Biden has opened up a large lead over President Trump in a state that continues to move toward the Democrats. The data finds Mr. Biden topping President Trump by a huge 55-36% spread. Results such as this will likely make Colorado a concession state for the Trump campaign.
Yesterday, we reported on a Colorado state circuit court ruling that placed candidates Michelle Ferrigno Warren and Lorena Garcia on the ballot despite not having the required number of petition signatures. Now, the state Supreme Court has reversed the ruling in Ms. Warren’s case and will likely do so when considering Ms. Garcia’s situation because they had a similar number of signatures. Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold (D) had appealed the lower court ruling to the state Supreme Court.
Though the Colorado Senate ballot has resulted in great indecision as to which of the original dozen or so Democratic candidates would actually achieve ballot status, it appears that the race will become a two-way affair between former Gov. John Hickenlooper and former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff. The winner of the June 30th primary will then challenge first-term Sen. Cory Gardner (R). A Colorado state judge has ruled that two candidates will gain a Senate Democratic primary ballot slot but barred another. The judge decided the cases individually based upon the number of petition signatures obtained before the Coronavirus shutdown. Prior to the quarantine order, statewide candidates were required to obtain 10,500 valid voter petition signatures to qualify for the primary ballot unless being advanced from the state party convention.
According to Denver District Court judge Christopher Baumann’s ruling, candidates Michelle Ferigno Warren and Lorena Garcia will appear on the Democratic primary ballot along with former Gov. John Hickenlooper and ex-state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff. Being disqualified is climate change activist Diana Bray. Secretary of State Jena Griswold (D) is appealing the rulings awarding Warren and Garcia ballot position. Ms. Bray is not contesting her disqualification. As we’ve seen in other states, a Colorado judge has awarded a US Senate candidate Democratic primary ballot position even though the petition signature requirement was not met. The judge ruled on a lawsuit against the state that candidate Michelle Ferrigno Warren, who collected approximately 5,400 of the 10,500 required signatures according to a Colorado Politics blog post, is granted a ballot position because, the judge said, she demonstrated sufficient voter support when considering the COVID-19 imposed stay-at-home and social distancing restrictions.
Ms. Ferrigno Warren joins former Gov. John Hickenlooper and ex-state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff on the US Senate Democratic ballot for the June 30th primary election. The eventual Democratic nominee then faces Sen. Cory Gardner (R) in November. Over the weekend, Colorado Democrats met in their virtual state convention and former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff overwhelmingly won his ballot position against the field of candidates, capturing 86% of the delegates votes. Former Gov. John Hickenlooper, the favorite for the party nomination to oppose Sen. Cory Gardner (R), did not participate in the convention having already secured his ballot position through the petition signature process.
The convention result means that Messrs. Romanoff and Hickenlooper will meet in the Democratic primary on June 30th where the latter man is a heavy favorite. The Colorado Senate election will be one of the top national contests in November. Former Gov. John Hickenlooper’s campaign announced yesterday that their candidate has officially qualified for the Colorado primary ballot via the signature route. Therefore, Mr. Hickenlooper, somewhat surprisingly, will not participate in the Democratic nominating state convention. Conversely, his principle primary opponent, former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, will attempt to qualify through the convention process. The eventual Democratic nominee faces Sen. Cory Gardner (R) in the fall campaign.
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