The Phoenix-based Data Orbital polling firm is tracking the Arizona early voting statistics and releasing the numbers of ballots already cast at the various election centers and through the mail. As expected, Democratic early participation is much greater than their Republican counterparts, but the latter party’s numbers, too, are up substantially from the 2016 early voting report.
According to Data Orbital, 549,551 votes have already been cast, 47.3% from Democrats, 32.6% from Republicans, with 20.2% of the grand total attributed to Independent voters. Compared to the first 12 days of voting in 2016, over 200,000 more ballots have been cast. Democrats are up over 125,000 from their total four years ago, while Republicans increased their total by almost 51,000. Independent early votes are over 27,000 than their preliminary 2016 voting pace. Four years ago, more than 2.573 million Arizonans cast their ballots, meaning the 2020 total early voting number so far represents 21.3% of the 2016 grand total. The way the national electoral map is unfolding, Arizona may be the most important state in determining who wins the presidential election. Former Vice President Joe Biden continues to lead here, and if he claims Arizona, it is a virtual certainty that he will win the national election.
The Data Orbital research firm is the state’s most prolific pollster because they survey races from statewide contests all the way through local campaigns. According to this study (10/3-5; 550 AZ likely voters; live interview), Mr. Biden leads President Trump, 48-43%. The crosstabs reveal that Trump’s problem sectors are women, the state’s dominant county – Maricopa, which houses 61.6% of Arizona’s population – and the suburban 6th Congressional District, a former Republican CD that is clearly moving to the political center. Earlier in the week, we reported that a new Public Policy Polling survey (9/22-23; 527 AZ-6 voters) found Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills/ Scottsdale) leading his Democratic opponent, Dr. Hiral Tipirneni, 45-43 percent. Quick to respond and refute, the Tipirneni campaign released their own Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research poll (9/23-26; 500 AZ-6 likely voters) and found their candidate topping the Congressman, 49-45%. It is clear the 6th District race, with an incumbent tainted with ethics violations, has crossed into toss-up mode.
A new Public Policy Polling survey (9/22-23; 527 AZ-6 voters; interactive voice response) finds Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills/Scottsdale), who was earlier found in violation of eleven different ethics charges, again in a close contest with physician Hiral Tipirneni (D). The PPP margin finds Rep. Schweikert’s lead at 45-43% in the formerly safe Republican congressional district. The numbers confirm two other published polls that produced similar results.
As a polling entity, the ABC News/Washington Post effort is rated as one of six A+ pollsters on the FiveThirtyEight statistical organization rating card. The media partners just released a pair of polls this week, one from Arizona and the other Florida. They both capture how much a survey sample can swing based upon segmentation, in this case from registered to likely voters.
The Arizona poll (9/15-20; 701 AZ registered voters; 579 AZ likely voters) finds President Trump trailing former Vice President Joe Biden, 47-49% with registered voters, but leading 49-48% among those who are most likely to vote. In Florida, we see an even greater split. That ABC/WP survey (9/15-20; 765 FL registered voters; 613 FL likely voters) projects Mr. Biden holding a bare 48-47% edge among those registered to vote but leads 51-47% within the segment of those most likely to cast their ballot. This example underscores the importance of the voter participation model in determining election outcomes. We have two more examples of pollsters testing the same electorate and arriving at vastly different conclusions. In Arizona, Morning Consult (9/11-20; 907 AZ likely voters; online from pre-determined sampling group) finds retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D) holding a nine-point, 49-40%, lead over appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R). While Fabrizio Lee & Associates also see Mr. Kelly with an edge, the margin is much different. From their survey (9/14-16; 800 AZ likely voters; live interview), Kelly’s lead is only two points over Sen. McSally, 48-46%.
We see a similar pattern in Michigan. The Ipsos research organization (9/11-16; 637 MI likely voters) detects Sen. Gary Peters (D) with a six-point, 49-43%, spread over manufacturing company owner John James (R), while the Marketing Resource Group (9/14-19; 600 MI likely voters) sees only a two point difference between the two, 42-40%, with a greater undecided factor. The AARP organization commissioned a series of Democratic and Republican polling firms to test key states for the upcoming presidential and US Senate contests. Like other recent pollsters, the Benenson Strategy Group (D)/GS Strategy Group (R) pairing found tightening ballot test results in three key states: Arizona, Florida and Pennsylvania.
Testing 1,600 likely voters via live interviews during the August 30th thru September 5th period, the AARP team found Joe Biden leading in all three of the critical swing states, but in margins well within the polling error factor. The Biden leads were 1, 2, and 3 points in Arizona, Florida, and Pennsylvania, respectively. Pollsters are active across the country in testing political campaigns and seem to be routinely delivering starkly different results for the same contests over a similar time frame. We have four such examples in Senate races.
Three different pollsters tested the Arizona Senate race between appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R) and retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D). While the three polling firms active during the first week of September all find Mr. Kelly leading, the point spread ranges from six all the way to 17 points. The high pollster for Kelly is Fox News (8/29-9/1; 772 AZ likely voters) and the six-point low is Democratic pollster Change Research (9/4-6; 470 AZ likely voters). Four pollsters were testing Michigan in early September, and the spread here ranges from a one-point deficit for Republican businessman John James opposite Sen. Gary Peters (D) to a dozen percentage points. Here, the most favorable James pollster is the Republican Tarrance Group (9/1-3; 569 MI registered voters) and the strongest Sen. Peters’ survey comes from the London, England based Redfield & Wilton Strategies (8/30-9/3; 967 MI likely voters). The Minnesota race between Sen. Tina Smith (D) and former US Rep. Jason Lewis (R) is attracting more attention. Three survey research firms were conducting polls in early September and found Sen. Smith’s advantage extending between two and eleven points. The high Smith poll came from Survey USA (9/4-7; 553 MN likely voters) and the best for Mr. Lewis is from Republican Harper Polling (8/30-9/1; 501 MN likely voters). North Carolinians are regularly polled, and the beginning of September is no exception. Again, brandishing wide ranges, seven surveys and/or iterations within such were conducted during the same time frame, and the margin stretches between an even race for Sen. Thom Tillis (R) and former state Senator Cal Cunningham (D) to a ten-point spread. The even poll came from Monmouth University’s (8/29-9/1; 401 NC likely voters) low turnout model (but the high turnout model suggested only a two-point difference), while the high spike came for Mr. Cunningham from Redfield & Wilton Strategies (8/30-9/3; 951 NC likely voters). Further signs are occurring showing the presidential race getting closer. Democratic pollster Change Research just released a series of surveys in six crucial 2020 swing states, Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, during the August 21-23 period with sample sizes ranging from a low of 344 likely voters in Arizona to a high of 1,262 similarly chosen poll participants in Florida.
While CR projects former Vice President Joe Biden to be leading in all six states, at least four of which (AZ, FL, NC, and either MI, PA, or WI) are must-wins for President Trump, the Democratic nominee’s lead has dwindled to between one and six points in all of these places. In another sign that the Arizona Senate race is beginning to close, Republican polling firm OnMessage (8/2-4; 400 AZ likely voters) projects appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R) pulling into a tie with retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D), as both recorded 48% preference in their latest study. This is the first poll since late June that did not yield an advantage for Mr. Kelly.
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