The Maryland state legislature convened in special session yesterday to consider redistricting and a new congressional map is expected to pass by the end of the week. The Democrats have a veto-proof majority in both the state Senate and House of Delegates, meaning they can override Gov. Larry Hogan’s (R) expected disapproval of a gerrymandered map that rates a “F” grade from Princeton University’s Gerrymandering Project. The new map would protect all seven Democratic US House seats and make the lone Republican district that Rep. Andy Harris (R-Cockeysville) holds more competitive.
Two days ago, a North Carolina three-judge appellate panel issued a stay order on the Tar Heel State’s December 17th candidate filing deadline pertaining to a redistricting lawsuit before the court. Yesterday, the full 15-member state Appellate Court quickly overturned the panel’s ruling, and the original filing deadline is restored until further legal action is taken. The chances of the North Carolina March 8th primary occurring as scheduled are now substantially enhanced.
Yesterday, real estate developer Tim James, son of former Alabama Gov. Fob James (R), announced that he will join the field of candidates opposing Gov. Kay Ivey in next year’s Republican primary. Former Ambassador to Slovenia Lynda Blanchard, currently a Republican US Senate candidate, is also expected to switch to the Governor’s race this week.
Already in the Republican gubernatorial primary are state Auditor Jim Zeigler, former Morgan County Commissioner Stacy George, and pastor Dean Odle. Candidate filing for the May 24th state primary is March 3rd. If no candidate receives majority support in the primary, a runoff election between the top two finishers will be held on June 21st. It remains to be seen if all of these contenders actually file their papers to become official candidates. Former Pittsburgh area Congresswoman and ex-state Senator Melissa Hart (R) announced that she will enter the crowded open gubernatorial Republican primary next year. Ms. Hart served in the House for three terms, losing her seat in 2006. She was defeated in a re-match attempt for her congressional seat, and then lost a Republican primary in 2012 in an attempt to return to the state Senate.
Ms. Hart will face 14 announced GOP opponents including former Congressman and 2018 US Senate nominee Lou Barletta. Democrats have coalesced around Attorney General Josh Shapiro. Gov. Tom Wolf (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. The Pennsylvania candidate filing deadline is March 8th for the May 17th primary election. In a story that broke late last night, ten-term US Representative Devin Nunes (R-CA) will leave Congress at the end of this year. Mr. Nunes is departing to become CEO of the Trump Media & Technology Group that former President Donald Trump is launching.
A Nunes vacancy means 37 districts will now be open in the 2022 election, counting pure open seats, those coming from reapportionment, and the new seats created from redistricting. It is possible the Nunes seat will be unfilled for the balance of the term, which would be consistent with Gov. Gavin Newsom’s (D) action when a similar Republican district was left vacant at the beginning of 2020. Former New York Congressman Max Rose (D), who lost his seat after one term to current Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-Staten Island), announced yesterday that he will return to seek a re-match. The 11th District, that covers all of Staten Island and part of Brooklyn is expected to become more Democratic, thus enhancing Mr. Rose’s chances.
The current 11th District is only 10,735 people short of the New York State population quota of 776,971 individuals per congressional district. If the map drawers keep Staten Island whole, as it has been traditionally and on the current map, then we can expect the Brooklyn portion of the district, currently about 1/3 of the population total, to drastically change. Democratic Lt. Governor Molly Gray yesterday announced that she will enter Vermont’s open at-large congressional race next year. The seat is open because veteran incumbent Rep. Peter Welch (D-Norwich) is running to succeed retiring Senator Patrick Leahy (D). The House race is expected to draw a large number of candidates, particularly on the Democratic side. After the August 9th state primary, the Democratic nominee will have the inside track toward victory in November.
Former Georgia US Senator David Perdue, who was defeated in the 2020 post-election runoff, announced that he will challenge Gov. Brian Kemp in the 2022 Republican primary. He comes to the race with the backing of former President Donald Trump who expects to be very active in the primary campaign. Gov. Kemp has Republican base problems largely because of his post-election voter fraud investigations and decisions.
In his announcement address, Mr. Perdue said, "instead of protecting our elections, [Kemp] caved to Abrams, and cost us two Senate seats, the Senate majority and gave Joe Biden free rein." Expect this to be a hotly contested statewide primary campaign. Candidate filing is scheduled for March 11th with the state primary tabbed for May 24th. Also in the GOP race is former DeKalb County Executive and ex-state Representative Vernon Jones. In the unlikely event that no candidate receives majority support in the first election, a runoff would occur on July 26th. The eventual Republican nominee will face Democratic 2018 gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams who lost to Gov. Kemp by just over one percentage point. State Rep. Charles Graham (D-Lumberton), who had originally announced his congressional candidacy against two-term Rep. Dan Bishop (R-Charlotte) earlier in the year, has switched districts. As a result of the new North Carolina congressional map creating a competitive open seat anchored in Fayetteville, Mr. Gray announced yesterday that he will instead compete in the new 4th District. Already in the open Democratic primary is state Sen. Ben Clark (D-Cumberland County). Six Republicans have announced, including a state Representative and a former Fayetteville Mayor. The seat leans Republican.
Veteran Oregon US Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-Springfield), chairman of the House Transportation & Infrastructure Committee, yesterday announced that he will retire after completing his 18th term next year. He ranks sixth in House seniority. Mr. DeFazio becomes the 19th Democrat not to seek re-election to the House, and the third full committee chair to retire.
The new 4th District was made stronger for Rep. DeFazio, thus allowing two other districts, including the state’s new 6th CD, to become more competitive. Republican Alex Skarlatos, who held Mr. DeFazio to the closest re-election outcome of his long career, 51-46%, had announced a re-match effort months ago. He will likely continue to be a consensus Republican candidate. State Labor and Industries Commissioner Val Doyle (D) immediately declared her congressional candidacy upon Mr. DeFazio announcing his retirement. The 4th District race will be viewed as competitive, with the eventual Democratic nominee being cast as the favorite. |
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