New Mexico US Rep. Deb Haaland (D-Albuquerque), the former chair of the New Mexico Democratic Party and one of the first Native American females to be elected to the House of Representatives, has been nominated as President-Elect Joe Biden’s Secretary of the Interior. Upon confirmation and resignation from the House, a special election will be scheduled to replace her in the New Mexico congressional delegation.
Rep. Haaland will be the third Democratic House member to join the Biden Administration. She will join Reps. Cedric Richmond (D-LA) and Marcia Fudge (D-OH). Mr. Richmond has been appointed as the director of the White House Office of Public Engagement, while Ms. Fudge is slated to become Secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Unlike the other two vacancies, there is potential for a competitive special election in NM-1. Though a Democratic seat, Republicans will have at least two potential candidates capable of running competitive campaigns, ex-Albuquerque Mayor Richard Berry and 2020 US Senate nominee Mark Ronchetti, a former television weatherman. A strong Democratic field is sure to form. It appears that President-Elect Biden carried the 1st District by a substantial margin, but the seat has been hotly contested in previous elections. State Rep. Charles Booker (D-Louisville), who lost a 45-43% Democratic Senate primary bid to retired Marine Corps helicopter pilot Amy McGrath earlier in the year, is apparently not closing the door on potentially entering the 2022 Senate field to challenge Sen. Rand Paul (R). He recently told political news reporters to “stay tuned,” with regard to his future statewide electoral plans.
Fresh from a November 57-43% defeat at the hands of Rep. Tony Cardenas (D-Pacoima/Los Angeles) in a double-Democratic general election, Human Resources executive Angelica Duenas (D) says she will make another run for the House in 2022. Ms. Duenas raised only $80,839 for her 2020 campaign, so her political apparatus must substantially improve if she is to become a serious intra-party challenger to the five-term Congressman.
Political blog reports in Minnesota indicate that two-term Rep. Pete Stauber (R-Hermantown/Duluth) is assessing his viability as a potential 2022 challenger to Gov. Tim Walz (D).
The potential political move makes sense for Rep. Stauber since Minnesota is likely to lose a congressional seat in reapportionment. With less population in the northern part of the state, there is a good chance that Rep. Stauber and incoming Rep. Michelle Fischbach (R), who just unseated 30-year congressional veteran Collin Peterson (D), could conceivably be paired in one large northern Minnesota congressional district. McLaughlin & Associates has already posted a survey to test the potential 2024 Republican and Democratic presidential nomination fields. The poll was conducted during the December 9-13 period of 1,000 likely voters through live interviews.
The McLaughlin results find President Trump dominating the Republican field at 56%, followed by Vice President Mike Pence recording 11%. In single-digits are Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX) with 5% support, Mitt Romney (R-UT) 4%, and former UN Ambassador and South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley at 3% preference. For the Democrats, assuming President-Elect Joe Biden does not seek a second term, former First Lady Michelle Obama leads Vice-President-Elect Kamala Harris, 29-25%, with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) attracting 7% support. Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) is ineligible to seek a third term in 2022, and already potential open seat candidates are beginning to stir. There is clear reason to believe this Governor’s mansion will return to the Democratic column after the 2022 election since Maryland is one of the bluest states in the country.
Three names surfacing this week as potential Democratic candidates are State Comptroller Peter Franchot, US Rep. Kweisi Mfume (D-Baltimore), and Baltimore County Executive Johnny Olszewski. Former Lt. Governor and Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele is the only prominent Republican so far being discussed. Yesterday, we listed a number of prominent Democrats whose names are being mentioned as potential challengers to GOP Gov. Charlie Baker as he prepares to run for a third term. One individual who immediately said he won’t challenge Mr. Baker, however, is outgoing Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy III (D-Newton). Mr. Kennedy, just coming off a long US Senate primary campaign that he lost to Sen. Ed Markey (D), says he is looking forward to “taking a breather from elective politics,” but holding a position within the new Biden Administration would be of interest.
Former US Rep. Jim Renacci (R), who held Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) to a 53-47% win in 2018, again made statements suggesting he will soon launch a primary campaign effort against Gov. Mike DeWine (R). Mr. Renacci was quoted on Twitter saying, "I will be either supporting candidates who are taking [Gov DeWine] on or running against him myself."
The Governor has come under fire in Republican circles for his strong anti-COVID economic shutdown measures. Therefore, whether Mr. Renacci eventually enters the race remains a question, but it does appear that Gov. DeWine is likely to face GOP primary opposition in 2022. The Insider Advantage polling firm just released new surveys that find both Republican contenders forging small leads over their Democratic rivals, margins consistent when compared with earlier polling.
According to the IA data (12/14; 500 GA likely voters; live interview), Sens. David Perdue (R) and Kelly Loeffler (R) hold an identical 49-48% edge over Democrats Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, respectively. This is more evidence that the Georgia runoffs are becoming a turnout battle. The party best convincing their voters to participate will likely win both campaigns. Outgoing California Rep. Gil Cisneros (D-Yorba Linda) is already contemplating a re-match with Rep-Elect Young Kim (R) who defeated him in November. In public remarks, Mr. Cisneros said that “everything is on the table” for the future while acknowledging that he could run again in what is now an Orange, San Bernardino, and Los Angeles County district. Redistricting, of course, will play a large role for all potential incumbents and candidates, which adds even more uncertainty to the 2022 pre-candidate filing periods.
Ms. Kim won the 2020 race, 50.6 – 49.4%, after Mr. Cisneros was victorious in a 2018 open seat contest against her (51.5 – 48.5%). Already, defeated California Democratic Reps. Harley Rouda (D-Laguna Beach) and T.J. Cox (D-Fresno) have announced that they will run again in their respective districts two years from now. |
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