It is now clear that former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is going to launch a serious campaign for the Presidency. Reports are surfacing that he is planning to spend over $31 million on media advertising in the Super Tuesday (March 3rd) states. Mr. Bloomberg has filed in Alabama and Arkansas, the first two places to hold ballot qualifying deadlines, but he did not enter the New Hampshire primary. The Bloomberg effort apparently plans to skip the first four states in February to concentrate on the 15 voting entities scheduled to hold nomination events on Super Tuesday. This type of strategy has not worked in the past, but we shall see if it proves successful for Mr. Bloomberg.
The North Carolina three judge panel that has presided over the years-long Tar Heel State redistricting legal proceeding took action again. With the North Carolina candidate filing period beginning on December 2nd and ending on the 20th, the judicial panel has excluded the US House candidates from that schedule until the latest lawsuit against the new congressional map is settled. The state legislature passed a new map that would give the Democrats two more seats, but the plaintiffs are still complaining that the map is gerrymandered.
Candidates for other offices, including US Senate and Governor, will continue to file during the aforementioned schedule. The US House schedule will be determined at a later time, and certainly suggests that the March 3rd primary could be moved for the congressional contests. Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who previously entered the presidential race in both Alabama and Arkansas but not in New Hampshire, has formally opened a national campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission. Mr. Bloomberg, who originally decided not to run for President, now believes that none of the current candidates will defeat Mr. Trump. He is also indicating that he will not participate in the early states, choosing to begin, if he follows through, with the Super Tuesday states on March 3rd.
Emerson College tested the national Democratic electorate (11/17-20; 468 US likely Democratic primary voters) and finds former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) tied with 27% apiece. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) follows with 20%, and Mayor Pete Buttigieg continues to lag nationally in single digits with 7% support. This is a small sample poll, so the results have a high error factor, but this data suggests a different pattern than what we’ve seen recently. According to other results, Mr. Biden has again been establishing a lead and Sen. Sanders has been further back. There does seem to be a uniform momentum decline for Sen. Warren, which this poll also depicts.
The Civiqs polling firm tested the Iowa Caucus likely electorate (11/15-19; 814 IA likely Democratic Caucus participants) and confirms that Mayor Pete Buttigieg is surging within the state. This large sample survey finds him atop the field with a seven-point lead at 26%, followed by Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT) who garner 19 and 18%, respectively, with former Vice President Joe Biden lagging badly behind with only 12% support.
Siena College released a rare survey of the New York Democratic electorate (11/12-18; 380 NY registered Democratic voters) and finds former Vice President Joe Biden putting distance between he and the rest of the Democratic field. Here, Biden is at 24% preference, with Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT) trailing with 14 and 13 percent. No other candidate, including Mayor Pete Buttigieg, even reaches the 5% plateau. The New York presidential primary is scheduled for April 28th. With 273 first ballot delegates, the Empire State delegation will be the second largest at the Democratic National Convention.
More than 500 people met Gov. Brian Kemp’s (R) deadline to file an appointment application to replace resigning Sen. Johnny Isakson (R). The more notable names included US Rep. Doug Collins (R-Gainesville), state House Speaker Pro Tempore Jan Jones (R-Milton), former Health & Human Services Secretary and ex-Congressman Tom Price, ex-US Congressmen Jack Kingston and Paul Broun, and author Jackie Gingrich Cushman, daughter of former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.
It is unclear when Gov. Kemp will make his decision, but it is presumed he will act before Sen. Isakson leaves office on December 31st. Republicans scored a recruitment victory as ex-Burlington County Freeholder Kate Gibbs, who lost her re-election campaign in November to a lesser candidate, announced that she will challenge freshman Rep. Andy Kim (D-Bordentown). Last November, Mr. Kim unseated then-Rep. Tom MacArthur (R) in a very close election (50.0-48.7%). Because the district’s nature is typically Republican, we can count on this being a top tier GOP challenge race next year.
State Rep. Jim Lower (R-Greenville) was primed to wage a primary campaign against former Republican Congressman Justin Amash (R-Cascade Township/Grand Rapids) before the latter man left the party to become an Independent. Mr. Lower cited his weak fundraising as the chief reason for withdrawing even before the campaign officially begun. He is expected to seek re-election to the state House.
State Rep. Lynn Afendoulis (R-Grand Rapids), real estate analyst Peter Meijer, Lyon Village Trustee Joe Farrington, and at least three others are currently in the Republican primary. It is presumed that Mr. Amash will run as an Independent in the general election, attempting to win a three-way plurality contest. Democrats will make a concerted effort to convert this seat. Four candidates have announced including former Obama White House aide Nick Colvin. The political forecast in this race is very uncertain. As candidate filing was closing yesterday for the special election to replace the late Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-Baltimore), state Delegate and physician Jay Jalisi (D-Owings Mills) became the 22nd Democrat who will battle for the nomination. It is now obvious that the Congressman’s widow, Maya Rockeymoore Cummings, becoming a candidate did not dissuade others from filing. Also running are state Sen. Jill Carter (D-Baltimore), former Congressman and NAACP president Kweisi Mfume, state House Majority Whip Talmadge Branch (D-Baltimore), and state Delegate and surgeon Terri Hill (D-Columbia).
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