Missouri: Mixed Numbers: In a race that is possibly flirting with the competitive designation, a GQR tracking survey conducted for the Lucas Kunce (D) campaign (10/23-26; 600 MO likely voters) sees their client trailing Sen. Josh Hawley (R) by only a 49-46% margin. Previous full polls, however, see the Senator holding low double digit leads.

Mr. Kunce has a strong fundraising operation that generated over $20 million in campaign receipts through the end of September, just $6 million behind Sen. Hawley. Another $4 million comes from outside sources, 90% of which has gone to either promote Sen. Hawley or attack Mr. Kunce.
​
Missouri’s recent voting history suggests that Sen. Hawley should win a comfortable victory, likely landing in the mid-50s with Mr. Kunce in the lower 40s.

CO-8: As Tight As Drawn: When the Colorado Redistricting Commission members drew the new seat that their state was awarded in the 2020 census, the intent was to construct a highly competitive CD that both parties could win in any election. The new 8th is performing as designed. In the 2022 election, then-state Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Thornton) won the congressional election with a bare 48.4 – 47.7% plurality.  A new survey finds that the 2024 contest could be just as close.

Emerson College just returned a poll (10/24-26; 485 CO-8 likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) that projects Rep. Caraveo to hold a slight 48-46% edge, similar to her previous victory margin, over state Rep. Gabe Evans (R-Westminster). Previous September surveys first found Rep. Caraveo holding a three point edge, while another showed an even contest.  Expect another plurality victory here on Tuesday regardless of who wins.

MI-7: Barrett Still Up in Toss-Up Race: The open 7th Congressional District of Michigan, which the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+4 and a CD The Down Ballot political blog statisticians rank as the sixth most vulnerable seat in the House Democratic Conference, promises to end in close fashion on Tuesday. Despite the rating numbers, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) won the current version of the district in 2022 with a 52-46% victory over then-state Sen. Tom Barrett (R), who returns in the open seat contest. Rep. Slotkin is now the Democratic nominee for Michigan’s open US Senate seat.

In what could be the final public poll for this contest was just published and Emerson College (10/24-26; 535 MI-7 likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees Mr. Barrett again holding a lead over former state Senator and ex-gubernatorial chief of staff Curtis Hertel (D).  In this survey, the reported ballot test is 47-45%. 

Mr. Barrett has led in all public polls for the race with a range of two to seven points. A GOP conversion win here would be a huge boost in the Republicans’ quest to hold their slim House majority.

​Tennessee: Rep. John Rose (R) Moving Toward Statewide Run:  Three term Tennessee Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville), who is a sure bet to win re-election on Tuesday, is indicating that he will enter the open 2026 Governor’s race and will officially announce his political intentions soon after the current election concludes. We can expect to see a crowded Republican field vying to replace the term-limited incumbent Governor Bill Lee (R).

When Mr. Rose makes his announcement, he will be the second House member to already make clear he will not seek re-election in 2026. Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ), in a previous public comment indicating that the next term will be his last, was the first to declare that he will not be a candidate in the next election.  

Ad Transfer: Musk Reports Harris canceling NC:  Elon Musk yesterday broke the story on X that Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign is canceling a $1.7 million ad buy in North Carolina. There is a belief that the money will be used for a new ad purchase in Virginia. A recent poll from Quantas Insights (10/22-25; 725 VA likely voters) found the Vice President leading former President Donald Trump by only one percentage point in the Old Dominion. Other polls conducted of the Virginia electorate in the similar time frame, from the Washington Post/George Mason University and Christopher Newport University, see Ms. Harris holding much larger leads at six and 11 points, respectively.

The Harris ad move makes sense if the campaign strategists believe there is some weakness in Virginia, and possibly New Hampshire, because Harris winning North Carolina would be a luxury but not a necessity. Winning there would mean an early clinch, but Virginia and New Hampshire are must wins in order to maintain Ms. Harris’ overall winning coalition of states. 

Arizona: Lake Closing the Gap: After a summer of substantially trailing US Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) in the open Arizona US Senate race, a trio of polls find former Phoenix news anchor Kari Lake (R) narrowing the gap between the two contenders. 

The three surveys, from The Trafalgar Group, Data Orbital, and AtlasIntel, all taken during the October 24-29 period with sampling universes ranging between 550 and 1,458, produce ballot test scores with Lake closing to within four points (Trafalgar) and one point (AtlasIntel), and with her actually leading by a point (Data Orbital) in the final survey.
​
The fact that we see three pollsters coming within the polling margin of error, and one that pushes Lake ahead for the first time since the two candidates were even in a National Republican Congressional Committee at the end of July, suggests that this race should draw more attention in the closing week.  

NY-17: Rep. Lawler Hanging On: Freshman New York US Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River), one of the most endangered House incumbents for this election cycle, received good news from a new Emerson College poll (for the Hill Newspaper; 10/24-26; 475 NY-17 likely voters; multiple sampling techniques). The ballot test found Rep. Lawler leading former US Rep. Mondaire Jones (D) by five percentage points, 49-44%. 

Rep. Lawler unseated then-Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman Sean Patrick Maloney in 2022 from a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rated as D+7. The Down Ballot political blog ranks the seat as the sixth most vulnerable district in the House Republican Conference.

PA-8: Rep. Cartwright Leading Again: Six-term Pennsylvania US Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Moosic/Scranton) has held what was transformed into a Republican seat since former President Trump carried a different version of the district back in 2016.  A new Noble Predictive Insights survey (10/23-25; 406 PA-8 likely voters; live interview and text) again finds Democratic Rep. Cartwright leading, this time against GOP businessman Rob Bresnahan, 50-43%. 

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the 8th District as R+8. The Down Ballot political blog ranks the seat as the fourth most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference. At this point in early voting, more Democrats have cast ballots which is typical for Pennsylvania. Republicans, however, are up seven points from their 2020 performance in this district and ten points when compared to 2022. Conversely, Democrats are off almost seven points from 2020 and 11 points from 2022.

Rep. Cartwright has won his last two elections with 52 and 51% in 2020 and 2022. The 2024 election will likely end closer than the Noble poll suggests, but Rep. Cartwright still must be considered the favorite to win another term.

New Hampshire: Coming Into Play? A new state may be worth watching on election night as a pair of polls find a closing of the race in New England’s Granite State. Late last week, Emerson College released their latest New Hampshire poll (for WHDH-Channel 7; 10/21-22; 915 NH likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) and the results saw former President Donald Trump cutting Vice President Kamala Harris’ lead to 50-47%, a very strong improvement from The Dartmouth Poll’s (10/5-18; 2,211 NH registered voters; online) result that found Ms. Harris holding a 21 point advantage.

Following the Emerson release, Praecones Analytica, polling for the NH Journal (10/24-26; 622 NH registered voters) saw the two candidates breaking even. New Hampshire does not have early voting, so the campaign tightening in its final week suggests an upset is possible since the Trump campaign appears to be peaking in the state at precisely the right time.

Michigan: Rogers Draws Closer: A pair of polls from Insider Advantage and Patriot Polling finds Republican former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) drawing closer to US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) in the battle to replace retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D). 

The Insider Advantage numbers (10/26-27; 800 MI likely voters) sees the two candidates tied at 48% apiece, while Patriot Polling (10/24-26; 794 MI registered voters; interactive voice response system) sees Rep. Slotkin’s lead holding at three percentage points. Since Patriot was using a registered voter sample as opposed to Insider’s likely voter universe, it is probable that the IA poll may be more accurate. This is also consistent with the prevailing wisdom that the Michigan electorate is drawing closer as early voting progresses toward election day.

Nebraska: Sen. Fischer Still Trailing the GOP Brand: The latest Siena College/New York Times Nebraska survey (10/23-26; 1,194 NE likely voters; live interview) finds former President Donald Trump holding a 14 point lead in his statewide race against VP Kamala Harris, while appointed Senator Pete Ricketts (R) enjoys and 18 point advantage in his electoral quest to serve the balance of the current term.

Sen. Deb Fischer (R), who has become embroiled in a tight and bitter race with Independent Dan Osborn conversely leads by only two percentage points. Mr. Osborn, who rejects that he is a Democrat who registered Independent, is now running ads saying he supports former President Trump’s tax and border policies. This race remains one to watch on election night.

WA-4: The Write-In Strategy: The double Republican contest between Washington US Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Sunnyside) and former NASCAR driver and businessman Jerrod Sessler has drawn little in the way of national attention. Though Mr. Sessler placed first in the state’s August jungle primary and Rep. Newhouse second, the consensus prognostication is that Rep. Newhouse is the favorite for re-election largely because he will attract most of the district’s Democrats.

In order to give the Democratic voters a different alternative, outside sources are attempting to promote Democrat Cherissa Boyd, who is a write-in candidate. The Washington Republican Party operation sending mailers drawing attention to Ms. Boyd but urging voters to support the Republican candidate of their choice, appears designed to squelch Boyd, but it could have their desired effect of driving Democratic votes away from Newhouse and toward Ms. Boyd. 

It is unlikely this strategy will work because running a write-in campaign is very difficult and it would take considerable resources to educate the voters in a shortened time frame. Though the plan is an attempt to use Boyd to help Sessler, the ploy is unlikely to deny Rep. Newhouse re-election.

Virginia: Shock Poll: Harris Only by One: A new Quantum Insights poll for the Trending Politics news blog released a very surprising poll result, one that found Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by just one percentage point, 49-48%, in the routinely blue Commonwealth of Virginia. 

The survey (10/22-24; 725 VA likely voters; online) found black voters breaking for Harris with a 77% support level, which is under what we typically see for this population segment, while Trump receiving 21% is higher than average for a Republican candidate. White voters are moving toward Trump with a 57% support factor, and Hispanics divide 55-41% in favor of Harris. Isolating the latter group, 41% is also an above average support factor for a Republican candidate, but the sample size reflected only half the size of the actual VA Hispanic population base.
​
The Washington Post/George Mason University survey, however, taken within the same time frame (10/19-23; 1,004 VA likely voters; multiple sampling techniques), sees Ms. Harris holding a 49-43% advantage, which is closer to Virginia voting history.