NE-2: Harris Staked to Large Lead: The 2nd District of Nebraska has an important role in the presidential race because it can deliver an electoral vote to a Democratic nominee in a state that will assuredly vote Republican. The just released New York Times/Siena College poll (9/24-26; 680 NE-2 likely voters) finds Vice President Kamala Harris expanding her previous lead over former President Trump to nine percentage points, 51-42%. 

It is important to remember that the 2nd District was made more Republican in 2021 redistricting and no longer has the boundaries that yielded President Biden a 22,000 vote margin four years ago. Still, the polling data suggests a clear Harris win with time to make a large swing growing short. The Nebraska early voting period begins October 7th and carries through to election day.

Ohio: Poll Weighting Discrepancy: The Ohio Senate race is getting closer, but a comparison of why we see different polling margins of the same race from studies conducted during a similar sampling period relates to data weighting methodology.

A comparison of how two recent Ohio pollsters weighted their data was made evident when looking at the New York Times/Siena College formula versus that of PollFair. According to NYT/Siena, the Ohio partisan formula breaks 29% D, 34% R, 36% I, which translates into a R+5 advantage. PollFair, however, weights the same electorate differently: 31% D, 39% R, 30% I, which would yield a R+8 GOP advantage. It is these types of statistical calculations that largely account for most polling discrepancies.

RCP Ratings: 4 of 6 Rated Toss-Ups Are Not: The Real Clear Politics US Senate rating chart is making the Toss-Up category too widespread. In fact, four of the six rated Toss-Ups campaigns should be in other categories.

The six that RCP rates as Toss-Ups are the Arizona and Michigan open races, and the incumbent contests for Sens. Rick Scott (R-FL), Sherrod Brown (D-OH), Bob Casey, Jr. (D-PA), and Tammy Baldwin (D-WI). 

The only races where the empirical and financial data could conceivably support a Toss-Up rating are the Michigan and Ohio races, and even they at least tilt toward the Democratic candidate. For the Arizona, Scott, Casey, and Baldwin campaigns, it appears the recent polling data, resource imbalance, and historical voter performance have not been given proper consideration. 

Accounting for the strong GOP gains in Florida over the past few years, the Scott race should be in the Lean Republican column. There is no data to suggest that Sens. Casey and Baldwin should not be considered favorites for re-election, and Rep. Gallego has enjoyed a clear lead in the Arizona race since the beginning of the general election cycle. All four should be in the Lean Democratic column.

NE-2: Rep. Bacon Again Trails: The aforementioned New York Times/Siena College poll (9/24-26; 680 NE-2 likely voters) that posted Vice President Kamala Harris to a 51-42% advantage in Nebraska’s 2nd District also finds Democratic state Senator Tony Vargas (D-Omaha) leading US Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion). 
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Though Mr. Bacon fares considerably better than former President Trump, he would still trail his Democratic rival, a man he defeated 53-47% in 2022, by a 49-46% margin. Once again, this is a seriously competitive race that promises a closer finish than 2022 considering the current polling data and what is sure to be a much larger presidential voter turnout.

Ohio:  Moreno Records First Lead:  RMG Research went into the Ohio field with a flash poll (9/18-20; 781 OH likely voters; online) and for the first time found Republican challenger Bernie Moreno (R) leading Sen. Sherrod Brown (D).  The ballot test posted Moreno to a 47-45% edge, and 48-46% when respondents who said they are leaning to one candidate or the other were added to the decided total.
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Though RMG has produced some questionable recent data, the current Ohio Senate race progression suggests that the overall trend is moving in Mr. Moreno’s direction.  The three September polls prior to the RMG data release found Sen. Brown’s margin to be 1, 3, and 2 points; therefore, this race is moving toward pure toss-up range.

VA-7:  Another Dead Heat Poll:  Despite a huge 7:1 advantage in fundraising through the latest published Federal Election Commission campaign finance report (June 30), retired Army Colonel Eugene Vindman (D) has not pulled away from Republican Iraq/Afghan War veteran Derrick Anderson (R) in their battle for Virginia’s 7th Congressional District.  The new Ragnar Research Partners survey for the Anderson campaign (9/14-17; 400 VA-7 likely voters; live interview) finds the two candidates locked in a dead heat 43-43% tie.  In August, the Ragnar data found the two contenders separated by only a 42-41% spread in Mr. Vindman’s favor. 
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The 7th District is one of the few competitive open seats in the country.  The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+2.  The Down Ballot research organization ranks the seat as the 17th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference.  Incumbent Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen) chose not to seek re-election in order to concentrate on a 2025 open race for Governor.

Indiana:  Closer Than Expected:  The Republicans strength in the Hoosier State suggested that this year’s open Governor’s race would not be particularly close.  It still may end that way, but a new GBAO survey, conducted for the Democratic Governors Association (9/19-22; 600 IN likely voters; live interview & text) currently finds a close ballot test result.

Despite former President Donald Trump leading the presidential race by ten percentage points according to this Indiana poll, Sen. Mike Braun (R) maintains only a tepid advantage over former Superintendent of Public Instruction Jennifer McCormick (D), 44-41%.  The poll suggests that Sen. Braun is weak among Republicans, garnering only 80% support within his own party.  Ms. McCormick, according to this data, also has the advantage with Independents by a 42-32% clip. 

The previously released survey, from Emerson College (9/12-13; 1,000 IN likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) found Sen. Braun holding a much more substantial eleven point lead, 45-34%.

North Carolina:  Stein Pulling Away:  Republican gubernatorial nominee Mark Robinson’s recent highly publicized controversy pertaining to past comments and actions is taking its toll.  Attorney General Josh Stein (D) is now pulling away from Lt. Gov. Robinson in what was once a close race. 
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A series of four polls from Emerson College, Victory Insights, the New York Times/Siena College, and Marist College, all conducted between September 15-24, with sample sizes ranging from 600 to 1,348, projects Mr. Stein leading the Governor’s race by 8, 5, 10, and 11 points, consecutively.  As Mr. Robinson’s problems continue to mount, the race moves toward Mr. Stein clinching victory.  Expect the Democrats to retain control of the Tar Heel State Governor’s mansion.  Two-term Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Nebraska:  Survey USA Data Confirms Dead Heat:  Clearly the most surprising Senate race lies in Nebraska.  Again, we see another poll that finds Sen. Deb Fischer (R) in a toss-up race with Independent Dan Osborn while Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) enjoys an 18 point advantage and former President Trump tops Vice President Kamala Harris with a 16 percent margin before the same sampling universe.

According to the new Survey USA poll conducted for the Osborn campaign (9/20-23; 558 NE likely voters; live interview & online) Mr. Osborn actually ticks ahead of Sen. Fischer, 45-44%.  Sen. Fischer’s problem is with women, where the cell segment numbers find her trailing 37-52%, even when both Sen. Ricketts and Mr. Trump have at least plurality support within the same segment.  More attention will be paid to this race in the closing weeks.

Fox News:  Releases Senate Ratings:  The Fox News political division released their current ratings of the 2024 US Senate contests yesterday, and for the most part they are aligned with other rating data.  The outlier on their list is calling the Nevada race a toss-up.  There is no current data suggesting such, as Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) leads in all published polls and actually had the biggest average lead, nine points, of any competitive Senate race according to the new FiveThirtyEight Senate ratings.

The Fox data shows Republicans gaining West Virginia and Montana, which would give the party a 51 seat majority.  The other race they rank as a toss-up is Ohio, and that does appear to be the case.  Aside from Montana and West Virginia, the Ohio contest featuring Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) and businessman Bernie Moreno (R) is the one that could be closing in Republicans’ favor.

Spending:  Outside Groups Evening Spending Divide:  Recently, we have seen announcements of large independent expenditures targeted for the Maryland Senate race to help Republican Larry Hogan, just as the Congressional Leadership Fund is beginning to expend major sums in House races.

While it has been common knowledge that Democrats are outraising and outspending their Republican counterparts, it appears the outside organizations running independent expenditures are cutting into the Democrats’ dollar advantage.
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Through the second quarter, all Senate candidates spent an aggregate sum over $187 million, and 65% of that expenditure figure came from Democratic campaigns.  Outside organizations, which have already spent a whopping $492 million, have delivered a majority of their funds, 56% worth, either to support Republican candidates or attack Democratic contenders.  Thus, the outside expenditure network, while still providing substantial support for Democratic candidates, has helped to balance the expenditure scale  and bring the Republican side to financial parity. 

Nevada:  New Polling Data Tracking with 2020 Result:  Noble Predictive Insights tested the Nevada electorate in reference to the presidential campaign and finds Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by only a percentage point, 48-47%. 

Looking at the geographic division in the Noble poll and comparing it to Gov. Joe Lombardo’s (R) victorious 2022 vote contribution percentages for Clark County (Las Vegas), Washoe County (Reno), and the rural Nevada areas, the Trump figures are equivalent to Lombardo’s performance in Clark and Washoe.  It is the rural areas where Trump will need to slightly improve if he is to carry the state. 
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While he will outpace Harris by better than 2:1 in this region, Mr. Trump’s 2020 performance in the rural areas was a point behind Lombardo’s 2022 total.  Considering Trump lost to Joe Biden by 2.3 percentage points here in 2020, the former President will need to even improve slightly upon Lombardo’s numbers in all regions, but especially in the rural areas, if he is to compensate for his previous deficit.

Maryland:  Big Media Buy for Hogan Allies:  Reports from the Free State are indicating that the Maryland’s Future Super PAC organization, which supports former Gov. Larry Hogan (R), is reserving $18.2 million of advertising time between now and the election.  This is twice the amount that Democratic nominee Angela Alsobrooks is spending.  Expect to see a large amount of Super PAC money to come to Alsobrooks’ rescue.  The Democratic leadership and her outside allies will ensure the spending gap is at least equalized.

FiveThirtyEight:  Releases New Senate Mean Average Data:  The FiveThirtyEight data organization released new mean averages for all the competitive Senate races and, for the most part, the numbers are consistent with averages publicized on other platforms. 
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While Democrats have relatively small but consistent leads in most of the competitive states, the Republican average is stronger (+3) in Montana, where a Tim Sheehy (R) victory over Sen. Jon Tester (D) would likely clinch an outright GOP Senate majority.  The race that appears to be getting closer is Ohio, where Sen. Sherrod Brown’s (D) average advantage has dropped to three percentage points.  The candidate with the strongest average is Nevada Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) at +9.  

California:  USC Releases Polls for Key Districts:  The University of Southern California and the Center for Urban Politics and Policy at Cal State University Long Beach partnered to test eight California congressional districts.  Two were Democrat vs. Democrat campaigns, and another found the sample size dropping significantly below an adequate level, so the numbers in CA-22 (Rep. David Valadao (R) vs. Rudy Salas (D)) should not be considered as viable.  In the two Democratic seats, Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) board member Lateefah Simon leads in Rep. Barbara Lee’s (D-Oakland) open 12th District and former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo posts a sizable advantage in Rep. Anna Eshoo’s (D-Atherton) open 16th CD.

Interestingly, in only one of two races where the Republican candidate held a lead, the USC poll features a GOP challenger.  Former state Assemblyman Scott Baugh (R) held a three point lead over state Sen. Dave Min (D-Irvine) in an open contest where the latter man’s most prevalent negative is his highly publicized drunk driving conviction.  The other leader is Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) who posted only a one point edge over former federal prosecutor and 2022 general election finalist Will Rollins (D).

The Democrats who were leading Republican incumbents were Adam Gray over Rep. John Duarte (one point difference), George Whitesides topping Rep. Mike Garcia (+2), and Derek Tran leading Rep. Michelle Steel (+2).

The pollsters interviewed 2,395 likely voters in the five congressional districts during the September 14-21 period.  Interestingly, the undecided voters, when pushed, leaned toward Reps. Duarte and Calvert, and for the Democratic candidate in the other three contests.
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In terms of the presidential vote, Kamala Harris led in all tested districts against Donald Trump but ran an average of three percentage points behind Joe Biden’s 2020 tallies.  All of these races are very much in play, and the turnout model will likely be the deciding factor.