Polling Series: Emerson College/The Hill: Emerson College, polling for the Hill Newspaper, conducted one of their typical survey series for key US Senate races. In this group, conducted from 8/25-28 with a total of 4,488 respondents in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, we saw serious movement in only two of the races. 

In Michigan, which usually reveals a close race between Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R), the Democrat’s lead increased to six points, 47-41%. The bigger surprise was Wisconsin. In the Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) – Eric Hovde (R) ballot test, the incumbent led by only one point, 49-48%. In the other races, Democrats Ruben Gallego, Jacky Rosen, and Bob Casey, Jr., all incumbents, continued posting strong numbers in Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, respectively.

​Nevada: All Four Districts Tested: As part of the Emerson College polling series for the Hill newspaper, the Nevada Senate poll also tested each of the state’s four congressional districts. Because this was a statewide survey, only one of the polls exceeded 300 respondents, which is typically the minimum number required for a reliable congressional district survey. Still, with samples between 280 and 291 respondents, the polls are all on the cusp of statistical credibility.

The results find all four incumbents, three Democrats and one Republican, posting double digit leads over their general election opponents. The closest of the contests is ironically in what is thought to be the most Democratic of the Las Vegas seats. 

In the North Las Vegas anchored 4th District, Rep. Steven Horsford (D) leads former North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee (R), 40-30%. Reps. Mark Amodei (R-Carson City), Dina Titus (D-Las Vegas), and Susie Lee (D-Las Vegas) all hold leads between 13 (Lee) and 31 (Amodei) points. The polling results suggest that all four incumbents will be returned to office in November.

VA-7: Virtual Tie: A just released poll from early August is the first we’ve seen in the open VA-7 general election campaign. The survey, from Ragnar Research for Republican Derrick Anderson’s campaign (8/4-6; 400 VA-7 likely voters; live interview) sees retired Army Lt. Col. Eugene Vindman (D) clinging to a one point, 42-41%, edge over attorney and Afghan War veteran Anderson.
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In a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+2, and the Down Ballot data organization ranks as the 17th most vulnerable seat in the House Democratic Conference, we can expect to see several more polls released here in the coming weeks.  

Arizona: Ballot Prop Confusion: While a lower court has given the green light to qualify a ballot proposition that would change Arizona’s current partisan nomination system to a jungle primary in 2026, the state Supreme Court may halt the process. The high court stated this week that the lower court did not address the issue of duplicate signatures when ruling that the proponents had enough signatures to qualify for the ballot.

The Down Ballot data organization reports that this proposal is also ambiguous in that it does not state how many candidates would advance to the general election if the proposition is adopted. Rather, a combination of the Governor, legislature, and Secretary of State would eventually decide who qualifies to advance in each contest. The legal battle over this controversial proposition will continue for some time.

Cornel West: Fails to Qualify for Florida Ballot: As ballots become finalized around the country, election officials in the state of Florida announced yesterday that Independent presidential candidate Dr. Cornel West has failed to meet the state’s requirements for ballot access. Therefore, his name will not appear before the Florida electorate. Dr. West has qualified for the ballot in Alaska, Colorado, Michigan, Nebraska, North Carolina, Oregon, South Carolina, Utah, Vermont, Washington, and Wisconsin. 

He could draw a percentage point or so of support from Vice President Harris in the key battleground states of Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, which could prove definitive. Dr. West might also be part of a matrix that could force the Alaska race into the Ranked Choice Voting round by helping deny former President Trump majority support.

​Florida: Another Close Poll: We’ve recently seen several polls that project Sen. Rick Scott (R) as being in a close race against former US Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D), Public Policy Polling (for the Clean and Prosperous America PAC; 8/21-22; 837 FL registered voters; bilingual option available; live interview and text) publicized their late August findings that posted Sen. Scott to only a 48-45% lead over Ms. Mucarsel-Powell, this just one month after the Florida primary election. Earlier in the month, Florida Atlantic University tested the state’s electorate (8/10-11; 1,040 FL likely voters; Interactive Voice Response system with bilingual option and online) and drew a similar conclusion. Their ballot test response yielded a Scott edge of 47-43%.

Recent electoral and polling history tells us, however, that seeing Democrats performing well in Florida races during August is not unusual, while Republican strength then shows itself as the calendar officially moves into Autumn. Additionally, the polling has typically inaccurately depicted Republican strength in the most recent campaigns. Therefore, it is likely Sen. Scott stands in better position than these surveys suggest.

FL-13: Rep. Luna Trailing in Post-Primary Poll: As is the case with Sen. Rick Scott (R) as explained above, we see potentially the same polling situation developing in the Tampa Bay area.

A new St. Pete Polls survey finds 13th District freshman US Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg) trailing her new Democratic general election opponent. The St. Pete Polls’ 13th District survey (8/27; 843 FL-13 registered voters; automated phone calls and text) found new Democratic nominee Whitney Fox leading Rep. Luna, 48-44%, in the first publicly released poll since May. In that month’s GQR survey for the Fox campaign, Rep. Luna led 51-46%.

A similar pattern, though which much less data, was also present in Ms. Luna’s 2022 congressional race. The one published pre-election poll, also from St. Pete Polls and conducted over the October 26-27 period, found Ms. Luna leading her ’22 opponent, Democrat Eric Lynn, by only one point, 46-45%, yet she carried the district by 8.1 percentage points in the actual vote. Again, we see another Florida Republican whose strength was not correctly projected, in this case, by an undercount of just over seven percentage points.

NJ-9: Nominee Clinched: It appears the nomination process to choose a successor to the late New Jersey US Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) has ended even before the official Democratic Party meeting to select a candidate has even begun.

After state Sen. Nellie Pou (D-Paterson) received a big bounce by obtaining endorsements from the local county party chairmen and other key local leaders, all of the other major candidates removed themselves from further consideration. Therefore, it appears that Sen. Pou will be the new nominee and will become a prohibitive favorite to defeat 2022 Republican nominee Billy Prempeh to keep New Jersey’s 9th District in Democratic hands.  

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr: Can’t Withdraw in Key States: Though presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (I) wants to withdraw from the ballot in all key battleground states, certain election officials say they won’t or can’t (under state election law) remove his name. It appears that Mr. Kennedy’s name will remain on the ballot in Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.  It appears he won’t be on in Arizona, Georgia, or Pennsylvania.

Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio released a memo suggesting the preponderance of Kennedy voters would move to Mr. Trump if their first choice, Mr. Kennedy, were not on the ballot. In Michigan, according to Fabrizio, the Kennedy vote breaks 43-41% in Trump’s favor. The Nevada Kennedy vote split is a whopping 66-16% for Trump; North Carolina, 58-22%; and Wisconsin, 55-25%. Therefore, the Trump campaign and Mr. Kennedy will have to communicate to Kennedy voters in these affected states that the latter man is no longer in the race irrespective of his ballot presence.

Maryland: Hogan Moves Into Tie: The latest AARP Maryland poll (conducted jointly by Fabrizio Ward & Associates (R) and Impact Research (D); 8/14-20; 600 MD likely general election voters; oversample of 482 likely voters over age 50; oversample of 176 black likely voters; 60% live interview; 40% text) projects that former Governor Larry Hogan (R) and Prince Georges County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) are deadlocked with each attracting 46% support.

These results are much different than the last publicly released ballot test survey, that from Public Policy Polling, conducted over the June 19-20 period.  According to those results, Ms. Alsobrooks held a 48-40% lead. Before, Emerson College and Concord Public Opinion Partners conducted pre-May 14th Maryland primary polls. The two found Ms. Alsobrooks leading by two and five points, respectively. The AARP data puts the Maryland Senate race into an entirely different competitive prism. Should this tight electoral pattern continue, the Maryland Senate race will move into the top tier of competitive statewide contests.

Montana: Sheehy Rebounds: A new Public Opinion Strategies survey (8/18-20; 500 MT likely voters; live interview) finds retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy (R) climbing back into the lead over veteran Montana Sen. Jon Tester (D).  According to the POS results, Mr. Sheehy leads the three-term incumbent, 51-44%. 

Earlier in the month, RMG Research, polling for the Napolitan Institute (8/6-14; 540 MT registered voters) saw Tester leading 49-44%. Even the latter poll, however, flips to Sheehy if people believe that the Montana race will flip the Senate to Republican control. Under this argument, the ballot test reverses in Sheehy’s favor by a 55-37% mark.

Aside from converting the West Virginia Democratic Senate seat, which appears to be a lock for the GOP, Montana is clearly the next best contest for Republicans to topple a Democratic Senator and claim a bare minimum Senate majority.

NJ-9: Endorsements & a Drop Out: State Sen. Nellie Pou (D-Paterson) received a big bounce in her effort to replace the late Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) on the New Jersey general election ballot. New Jersey politics, of which the local county party chairmen have powerful positions, is still machine driven. For the coming special Democratic Party meeting to replace Mr. Pascrell, all three of the 9th District’s county chairmen, those from Passaic, Bergen, and Hudson counties, have endorsed the local state Senator. 
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In another pre-meeting event, Paterson Mayor André Sayegh, thought to be the late Congressman’s choice to succeed him, announced that he is removing himself from consideration. The remaining candidates are: General Assembly Speaker Pro Tempore Benjie Wimberly (D-Paterson), Assemblywoman Shavonda Sumter (D-Paterson), and St Senator Pou.

​Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.: Still Could Qualify in 47 Domains: Robert F. Kennedy, Jr’s. (I) campaign status is still not entirely clear. While he says he won’t be on the ballot in battleground states, his campaign continues in others.

According to CBS News, Mr. Kennedy has current ballot status in 23 states, including the District of Columbia, and his petitions are pending in an additional 20 states. He has only been rejected in four: Arizona, New York, Ohio, and Texas.  An additional four, Kentucky, Mississippi, Rhode Island, and Wyoming, report he is short of the minimum number of signatures needed for ballot access.  Therefore, we can assume he will not pursue obtaining a ballot position in these states.

Of the commonly considered battleground states, Mr. Kennedy has qualified in Michigan, Nevada, and North Carolina. He is also qualified in Maine and Nebraska where their congressional districts carry an electoral vote. While it is presumed he will come off the ballot in these places, will he accept ballot positions from any of the 20 states where the decision is pending? He has already withdrawn from Pennsylvania, but Georgia and Wisconsin are also in this category, and it is only a presumption that the decision been made to exit in these places. 

While much is assumed about the Kennedy withdrawal announcement, are all the final decisions made about where he will participate as a candidate and where he won’t? It is apparently too soon to tell.