Lt. Governor Tate Reeves scored a 54-46% victory last night in the Mississippi Republican gubernatorial run-off election, meaning that he will oppose four-term Attorney General Jim Hood (D) in the November election. The winner will succeed term-limited Gov. Phil Bryant (R) as the state’s Governor.
Expect the Democrats to make a serious play in the general election despite the state’s Republican voting history. Mr. Hood is often described as “the most successful Democrat in the South” because he has won four consecutive statewide elections here, something of which no other southern Democrat can boast. Additionally, though Mr. Reeves had the Republican political establishment backing, including Gov. Bryant and former Governor and ex-Republican National Committee chairman Haley Barbour’s public support, his victory margin appears to be a bit weak. He will have to spend time shoring up his GOP base before directly engaging Mr. Hood. This could be a race to watch in November. Rumors are surfacing that four-term California Rep. Paul Cook (R-Yucca Valley) may eschew running for re-election to the House next year in order to seek an open seat on the San Bernardino County Board of Supervisors. Should the Congressman not seek re-election, the 8th District would be heavily contested in the March 3rd jungle primary. In two of the last four elections, the jungle vote actually produced two Republicans advancing to the general election. Thus, the 8th is the second-safest seat in the state for the GOP. It stretches along the state’s eastern border from San Bernardino County, all the way through the Death Valley National Park, and even to the El Dorado National Forest on the outskirts of South Lake Tahoe.
Massachusetts Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy III (D-Newton) for the first time publicly admitted to considering challenging Sen. Ed Markey in next year’s Democratic primary. In a written message, Rep. Kennedy continues to say he has not yet made a decision, but also wrote that, “…I’m not sure this is a moment for waiting. Our system has been letting down a lot of people for a long time, and we can’t fix it if we don’t challenge it.”
He has taken direct action, however. Mr. Kennedy has filed a Senate campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission, meaning he will have a vehicle to transfer money from his House committee if he decides to run. The Congressman has $4.2 million in his House campaign account and could transfer all of it to the new Senate committee. The amount is virtually the same as Sen. Markey reported as his cash-on-hand figure at the end of June ($4.05 million). The Massachusetts primary is not until September 15, 2020, so this campaign has a long cycle. As the Maine special legislative session was ending yesterday, the state Senate passed a bill and sent to Gov. Janet Mills (D) a measure that would add the Ranked Choice Voting system to the presidential primary ballot. Maine, like several other states, is moving from a caucus system to a primary and will join 13 other states in voting on Super Tuesday, March 3rd.
Ranked Choice Voting is a system that allows voters to rank their candidate choices, and certain individuals will have their multiple votes counted if the first-place finisher only receives a plurality of the vote. The system’s purpose is to guarantee that a candidate will exceed 50%. In a presidential primary, however, when delegates are apportioned on a percentage basis with a 15% qualifying factor, it is unclear how the RCV would affect the apportionment process. If signed into law, we could see a credentials challenge at the Democratic National Convention from certain candidates who fail to receive as many delegates under Ranked Choice Voting as they would from the original vote. Five-term Wisconsin Congressman Sean Duffy (R-Wausau) announced yesterday that he will be leaving office effective September 23rd. Mr. Duffy, originally elected in 2010 to the seat that former House Appropriations Committee chairman David Obey was retiring from after 41 years in the House, is leaving because an expectant child has already been diagnosed with serious health challenges.
Gov. Tony Evers (D) will call a special election for the seat once the resignation takes place. It is likely that the special will coincide with the state’s Spring Election, a primary and general vote where judges and local officials are elected. The Spring primary is February 18, with the general election scheduled concurrently with the Wisconsin presidential primary on April 7th. The Duffy resignation means there are now 17 open US House seats. Retired Navy Admiral Michael Franken announced that he is joining the US Senate Democratic primary to compete for the opportunity of challenging first-term Sen. Joni Ernst (R) next fall. To win, he will have to slip past real estate company executive Theresa Greenfield who the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has already endorsed and will support in the June 2020 primary election. Three other Democrats are also announced candidates. Sen. Ernst is favored for re-election, but Iowa always has the potential of becoming a highly competitive political state.
Monmouth University tested the national Democratic presidential nomination field and finds a virtual three-way tie among Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), and former Vice President Joe Biden. The first two are tied at 20%, while Mr. Biden registers 19%. But, this poll has a national sampling universe of only 298 respondents, far under what can be considered credible to forecast national results. The survey was conducted over the August 16-20 period.
Change Research conducted one of the few Democratic presidential polls of the New Jersey electorate (8/16-20; 635 NJ likely Democratic primary voters) and finds a tight three-way race for the top spot. Former Vice President Joe Biden places first with 28%, followed by Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) at 23% and Bernie Sanders (I-VT) at 21%. In fourth position, posting 12%, is South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg. Home state Sen. Cory Booker could only manage 5% support for his presidential effort. New Jersey has 126 first ballot delegates. The state primary is one of the latest on the schedule, June 2, 2020.
Clearly part of the enticement package for former Gov. John Hickenlooper to enter the US Senate race was getting national party support despite being in a field with 13 other Democratic candidates. On Friday, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee officially endorsed Mr. Hickenlooper, just two days after he officially entered the Senate race. Obviously, the party leaders are “all-in” with Hickenlooper, and it is likely we will see a highly competitive Hickenlooper-Sen. Cory Gardner (R) general election campaign.
Former state Rep. Steve Braun, the brother of freshman US Senator Mike Braun (R-IN), lost a 2018 congressional primary in the open 4th District to now-Congressman Jim Baird (R-Greencastle). On Friday, Steve Braun announced he is returning to campaign in another district as he declared his candidacy for the open 5th District, from which Rep. Susan Brooks (R-Carmel) is retiring. Mr. Braun becomes the first name candidate to enter the CD-5 Republican primary. Democrats will likely coalesce behind former state Representative and Lt. Governor nominee Christina Hale.
The 5th District covers all or parts of eight counties north and east of Indianapolis, including a large number of the capital city’s northern suburbs. The region is reliably Republican, not electing a Democrat to the US House since the 1980 election. President Trump carried this district, 53-41%, slightly under Mitt Romney’s 2012 margin of 57-41%. |
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