With multiple Republican challengers announcing their candidacies against Gov. Henry McMaster (R), the state’s Lt. Governor who ascended to the chief executive’s position when then-Gov. Nikki Haley (R) was appointed as US Ambassador to the United Nations, the Democratic nomination could become more valuable. Therefore, more speculation is swirling about who will enter the party battle next year. One key state Representative with gubernatorial aspirations indicated yesterday that he would step aside for a colleague. State Rep. Justin Bamberg (D-Bamberg County) said that if state Rep. James Smith (D-Richland County) enters the gubernatorial race, he would not run himself, and instead support the latter man.
The Republicans will be favored to hold the seat in this strongly conservative state, but the GOP campaign involving Gov. McMaster and his opponents will certainly be a contest worth watching. A unified Democratic Party is a must if their eventual nominee is to have any chance of scoring an upset victory. --Jim Ellis Utah Rep. Rob Bishop (R-Brigham City) announced yesterday that he will run for an eighth term next year, but will not seek re-election in 2020. Mr. Bishop, first elected in 2002, has a safe northern Utah CD that includes the cities of Ogden and Logan and is a sure bet to win another term. Should Mr. Bishop carry through his retirement plans in three years, and there is no reason to believe he will not, we can expect a major Republican primary battle at that time. Hillary Clinton managed only 22% of the vote in this district last year, so the eventual Bishop successor will certainly come from the Republican nomination fight.
--Jim Ellis Two Nevada Republican primary polls were released yesterday that show completely different results. And, both have methodology questions. JMC Analytics & Polling (8/24-25; 700 likely Republican registered voters) finds Republican challenger Danny Tarkanian leading Sen. Dean Heller, 39-31%. The Heller campaign quickly countered with their own Tarrance Group poll taken earlier in the month (8/14-16; 300 NV GOP likely primary voters) that gives the Senator a wide 55-33% lead over Mr. Tarkanian. Obviously, the polls differ wildly, but even the small-sample Tarrance data suggests weakness for Heller within the Republican base despite his 22-point advantage.
The JMC poll likely created a sample more closely aligned with President Trump supporters (Mr. Trump has an 80:14% favorability ratio within the sample) as opposed to a straight Republican registered voter universe. The sampling statement suggests that the respondents are “likely registered Republican voters”, an unusual approach in a place where voters are defined as members of a particular political party. We can expect to see a great deal of political activity surrounding the Nevada Senate race throughout all of next year both in the Republican primary and certainly the general election. --Jim Ellis The Senate Leadership Fund, closely tied to Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), released its sponsored Voter Surveys & Consulting poll (8/21-23; 601 AL likely GOP run-off voters) last Friday. Their special Alabama Republican run-off projection displays a much different conclusion than the two previous polls publicized last week. Voter Surveys showed former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore holding leads of close to 20 points over appointed Sen. Luther Strange. In this new survey, Judge Moore continues to hold an advantage, but it is sizably smaller. The VS&C study finds Sen. Strange trailing only 41-45%. Should this latter poll prove most reliable, and it could based upon potential skews in the other two, then the campaign will change greatly in the closing month. The run-off election is scheduled for September 26th.
--Jim Ellis State Rep. Stacey Abrams continues to show momentum for her Democratic gubernatorial campaign. When she announced, the state legislator resigned as her party’s Minority Leader in order to better concentrate on her statewide campaign. Now, she is taking her commitment a step further. Over the weekend, Ms. Abrams made public her intent to resign from the state House altogether. Gov. Nathan Deal (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. State Rep. Stacey Evans opposes Ms. Abrams in the Democratic primary. Republicans feature Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle and Secretary of State Brian Kemp among their four announced contenders.
--Jim Ellis Talk of a 2020 “unity ticket” featuring Govs. John Kasich (R-OH) and John Hickenlooper (D-CO) should now come to at least a temporary end. Over the weekend Gov. Kasich emphatically stated in an interview that he would not be part of such an effort for the next presidential election. But, even such a firm declaration will not likely end all speculation.
--Jim Ellis Physicist Elaine DiMasi (D) declaring her congressional candidacy in eastern Long Island’s NY-1 is another in a long line of upcoming crowded Democratic primaries. Ms. DiMasi became the sixth Democrat so far to announce, once again establishing a pattern of having so many contenders vying for the party nomination that the eventual winner will be pushed far to the left, thus potentially making him or her unacceptable to an electorate who has in multiple elections voted a Republican into Congress. Ms. DiMasi is projected to be a serious candidate, but likely the favorite for the nomination remains former Suffolk County legislator Vivian Viloria Fisher. Two-term incumbent Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley/The Hamptons) will seek re-election.
--Jim Ellis Businessman Jay Sidie (D), who held four-term Rep. Kevin Yoder (R-Overland Park) to a 51-41% re-election victory last November, announced that he will run again next year. The closeness of the 2016 result, however, is likely more attributable to Hillary Clinton carrying the 3rd District than a particularly strong effort from Mr. Sidie. Though he is likely the leading contender for the Democratic nomination, he is nowhere close to being unopposed. Five other Democrats have already announced their own candidacies. The 3rd District is the most marginal in Kansas, but is still reliably Republican. Rep. Yoder is viewed as a potential gubernatorial candidate, but as time progresses it appears far more likely that the Congressman will seek re-election than run statewide.
--Jim Ellis Local Quad Cities business owner Mark Kleine (R) announced his congressional candidacy against three-term Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Moline). Earlier in the year Rep. Bustos had considered entering the Governor’s race, but declined to move forward with a statewide campaign. The district has become a reliable one for Ms. Bustos, averaging 56% of the vote in three elections, including defeating incumbent Rep. Bobby Schilling (R) in 2012. President Trump, however, carried the seat last November with a margin of less than one percentage point, representing a 17-point turnaround from Democrat to Republican since the 2012 presidential election. Rumors abound that Rep. Bustos could be tabbed as a gubernatorial running mate after the statewide primary. If so, Mr. Kleine would be well positioned should this seat suddenly become open.
--Jim Ellis There is a good possibility that members of two nationally known political families will square off in the Republican primary once Rep. Luke Messer (R-Greensburg/Muncie) officially announces for the Senate. Greg Pence, brother of Vice President Mike Pence, says he will decide later in the year if he will seek the open seat. He is currently leading the fundraising efforts for Rep. Messer’s fledging statewide campaign. Closer to making a positive decision about running is businessman and former Senate aide David Willkie. The latter is the grandson of former presidential candidate Wendell Willkie (R-1940 GOP nominee; lost to President Franklin D. Roosevelt). The open 6th District, formerly the seat Mr. Pence represented when he was in the House, is expected to remain in Republican hands.
--Jim Ellis |
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