The University of California at Berkeley’s Institute for Governmental Studies released their latest Golden State survey (7/18-24; 5,795 CA registered voters; 3,266 CA likely recall election voters; online) and found that the ballot test for Gov. Gavin Newsom’s (D) September 14th recall election reveals a very tight contest among likely voters. According to the poll results, 47% of the respondents motivated to cast their ballot would vote to remove Newsom from office while 50% would vote against the recall.
The tally is largely due to the enthusiasm among Republican voters. The survey found almost 90% of GOP respondents saying they are highly interested in the recall election as opposed to just 58% offering the same response among Democrats and 53% from Independents. The Governor’s biggest problem is the pollster’s analysis that Democrats “almost unanimously” believe Gov. Newsom will win the recall election, thus leading to a higher degree of apathy within the sample segment. In the replacement election, the UC Berkeley poll finds Los Angeles media commentator Larry Elder leading the group of 46 candidates with 18% support. John Cox, the 2018 Republican gubernatorial general election finalist, and former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer are next with 10% apiece. State Assemblyman Kevin Kiley (R-Granite Bay/ Sacramento) registers 5% preference, and media star Caitlin Jenner lags with just 3% support. Survey USA went into the field to test the 2021 open Atlanta Mayor’s race (7/20-25; 650 Atlanta adults; 527 registered voters; interactive voice response system and text) and finds none of the ten candidates even reaching the 20% support plateau.
Former Mayor Kasim Reed (D), who jumped into the race soon after incumbent Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) announced that she would not seek re-election, leads the group, but with just 17% support among the registered voters. City Council President Felicia Moore (D) is second with 10%, while the remaining eight contenders all fall under 7% preference. Crime is a top concern. A total of 77% of those questioned categorized crime as a major issue in the city, and an additional 16% labeled it a “minor issue.” Yesterday, Afghan War veteran Rod Honeycutt announced his Republican primary challenge to freshman Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-Hendersonville) in North Carolina’s far western congressional district. He is the fourth Republican to come forward well before next year’s candidate filing deadline. None, however, have any electoral history.
From Rep. Cawthorn’s perspective, facing a large field will actually help. North Carolina is a runoff state, but only if the leading candidate fails to reach 30% of the vote. Considering Rep. Cawthorn in the 2020 Republican runoff defeated a Donald Trump endorsed candidate with 66% of the vote in chief of staff Mark Meadows former district, it becomes clear that the country’s youngest Congressman begins his quest for a second term with strong backing from his political base. The succeeding election to replace deceased north Texas Rep. Ron Wright (R-Arlington) concludes this evening with a runoff election featuring two Republican contenders. Mr. Wright’s widow, Susan Wright, was the leading vote getter in the May 1st jungle primary and polling shows her leading state Rep. Jake Ellzey (R-Waxahachie) by a ten-point margin according to the last public poll (American Viewpoint for the Wright campaign; 44-34%; 7/19-21; 400 TX-6 likely runoff voters; live interview).
As with all special elections, turnout will be the key. A total of 78,471 individuals voted in the jungle primary contest. Today’s count is expected to be considerably lower since the Democrats failed to qualify a candidate in this runoff contest. Rep. Ellzey, however, is attempting to encourage Democrats to participate in the runoff contest. He is running strongly within that partisan segment mostly because former President Trump has endorsed Ms. Wright. The special election to fill Housing & Urban Development Secretary Marcia Fudge’s Cleveland-Akron congressional seat enters its last week of campaigning and the Democratic battle, of which winning is tantamount to claiming the seat, has evolved into a two-candidate race. The battle between ex-state Senator Nina Turner, a former national co-chair for the Bernie Sanders for President campaign, and Cuyahoga County Councilwoman Shontel Brown, also the Democratic Party chair for the locality, has divided upon establishment versus anti-establishment lines within the party structure.
Ms. Brown’s new ad underscores her move to align herself with the national party establishment. The 30 second spot disparages Ms. Turner for her previous attacks on the Democratic Party, President Biden and Vice President Harris (all before they were elected) so it will be interesting to see just how the Cleveland-Akron Democratic electorate will respond. The primary election is August 3rd, with a close finish predicted after Ms. Turner opened with large polling leads. Last week, Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) announced that he will seek a second term, and this week he is already running commercials. His first media wave targets a trio of areas outside of Chicago with three individual ads each highlighting an area service person and their contribution to fighting COVID. The geographically targeted ads feature individuals from Rochelle, located south of Rockford, the state capital of Springfield, and Belleville, which lies on the Illinois side of the St. Louis suburbs. Gov. Pritzker is favored for re-election, but Republicans are expected to heavily target the race.
The Associated Press ran a story at the close of last week reporting that Cindy Grossman, ex-wife of former NFL football star and potential Georgia US Senate candidate Herschel Walker, obtained a 2005 restraining order against the retired player four years after their divorce for threatening to shoot she and her boyfriend. Though the reported incidents occurred more than 15 years ago, the stories coming back into focus could certainly have an adverse effect upon whether Mr. Walker decides to run for the Senate. This is a developing story.
The Mellman Group, polling for the Democratic Majority for Israel PAC, released their latest results from the OH-11 special election campaign. Voters will complete the primary nomination process on August 3rd, and the Democratic primary winner will be a lock to take the seat in the November 2nd special general election. The candidates are vying to replace Housing & Urban Development Secretary Marcia Fudge (D) who resigned the Cleveland-Akron congressional seat to accept the Biden Administration cabinet post.
According to the Mellman data (7/13-17; 400 OH-11 likely Democratic primary voters; live interview), former state Senator and ex-Bernie Sanders for President national co-chair Nina Turner leads Cuyahoga County Councilmember and County Democratic Party chair Shontel Brown, 41-36%, with the other 11 candidates splitting an aggregate 5 percent. This is the closest margin a Democratic poll has detected during the campaign and continues Ms. Brown’s trend of turning the multi-candidate contest into a close two-way battle. The pre-primary financial reports are available for Ohio’s 15th District special election that features real action on the Republican side in the battle to replace resigned Rep. Steve Stivers (R-Columbus). State Sen. Bob Peterson’s (R-Sabina) $556,000 leads the way among the 11 active candidates. Ohio Coal Association chairman Mike Carey, who former President Donald Trump is backing, is second with $460,000 in reported receipts. State Rep. Jeff LaRe (R-Canal Winchester) reports only $239,000 raised even after Mr. Stivers launched a relatively substantial independent expenditure on his behalf. None of the others has even reached the $200,000 level in contributions from others.
The special congressional election primary, along with the race in OH-11, is scheduled for August 3rd with the special general on November 2nd. While the Democrats are prohibitive favorites to win the 11th District special, the eventual Republican nominee will be the clear favorite in the 15th. Former Nebraska Governor Dave Heineman (R), who served two full terms after an initial two years in office when succeeding a resigned state chief executive, confirms that he is considering returning for another run next year. Current incumbent Pete Ricketts (R) is ineligible to run for a third consecutive term. Mr. Heineman said just before the weekend began that he would give launching a new campaign intense thought over the summer and announce his decision “in the Fall.” The early prevailing political wisdom suggests that he will run.
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