State Assemblyman Anthony Brindisi, a moderate by New York Democratic standards, said yesterday that he will challenge freshman Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-New Hartford) next year. Ms. Tenney was elected with only 44% of the vote, but in a competitive three-way contest. The 2016 election featured Ms. Tenney, a Democratic nominee, and a strong Independent who took votes from the new Congresswoman’s base. Retired Rep. Richard Hanna (R-Barneveld) said two weeks ago that he is considering returning to the political arena, but as an Independent candidate. If so, this would create another three-way race, meaning any result could happen.
Archie Parnell, the Democratic special election nominee that out-performed predictions despite losing 51-48% to newly-elected Rep. Ralph Norman (R) last week, says he has not decided whether to challenge the new Congressman in the regular election. Under a normal turnout model, Norman should have a greater advantage than he did before a small 87,000+ participation factor in the special election.
Continuing today’s theme of individuals announcing they won’t run for a particular office, Knox County (Knoxville) Mayor Tim Burchett (R) answered definitively that he will not seek the open Governor’s office next year. At this point, the Republican field appears weak though most appear to be waiting for a decision from US Rep. Diane Black (R-Gallatin). The Congresswoman has been expected to enter the race for months, and remains a probable candidate. Former Nashville Mayor Karl Dean leads the Democratic side. Gov. Bill Haslam (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.
Businessman Michael Eggman (D), who has run two relatively strong races against Rep. Jeff Denham (R-Turlock/Modesto), said yesterday that he will not return for a third try. Democrats do not lack for candidates, however. Five have already announced their candidacies, the strongest of whom appears to be former Riverbank City Councilwoman Dotty Nygard and venture capitalist Josh Harder. Rep. Denham is the early slight favorite to win re-election, but the 10th is a marginal district that will become a major Democratic target.
State Sen. Ted Kennedy, Jr. (D-Branford), who originally said he was 90% sure he would enter the open Governor’s campaign next year, has now reversed course. Mr. Kennedy announced yesterday that he would not run, seemingly indicating that he will instead seek re-election to the legislature. Gov. Dan Malloy (D) previously announced that he will not seek a third term. In another surprising move, Attorney General George Jepsen (D) also said earlier that he will not run for the state’s top post. Six Democrats have announced, including the state Comptroller and two mayors. Nine Republicans are in the race, including several more mayors and state legislators.
Former 1st District US Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Flagstaff) vacated her expansive eastern Arizona congressional district to unsuccessfully challenge Sen. John McCain (R) last year (losing 54-41%). Since the ex-Congresswoman and statewide candidate has now moved to Tucson, speculation surrounding her entering the congressional race against two-term Rep. Martha McSally (R-Tucson) has reached a new high. Late last week, Ms. Kirkpatrick filed a congressional exploratory committee for the 2nd District, meaning that action is now accompanying what, heretofore, had only been conjecture.
Should Ms. Kirkpatrick run, she would first face a major Democratic primary. Already in the race are 2016 nominee Matt Heinz (lost 57-43%), former state Rep. Bruce Wheeler, and businessmen Billy Kovacs, Jeff Latas, and Charlie Verdin, in addition to retired Air Force Colonel Lou Jordan. Though Rep. McSally ran strong here last November the 2nd District is politically marginal and will result in a top tier Democratic challenge race next year. With US Rep. Ann Wagner (R-St. Louis County) expected to announce her Senate candidacy sometime in July, speculation surrounding whether Attorney General Josh Hawley (R) enters the race continues to hover. While the first-term AG hasn’t yet said he will challenge incumbent Claire McCaskill (D), Mr. Hawley also isn’t closing the door on such an effort and has some powerful Missouri backers – ex-US Sen. John Danforth and major donor Sam Fox, a former US Ambassador and St. Louis businessman, among them – urging him to run. While the new Attorney General says that the Senate race is at least a possible political option for him, there is little indication he is preparing a campaign. It is likely, at this point, that Rep. Wagner becomes Sen. McCaskill’s top challenger. The Missouri race is one of the top 2018 Republican conversion opportunities.
Four-term US Rep. Kevin Yoder (R-Overland Park/ Kansas City) faced a competitive 3rd District re-election campaign last year, a challenge he won 51-41% even while Hillary Clinton topped President Trump by a percentage point in his metro Kansas City congressional district. Since the election, speculation has surfaced that Mr. Yoder would enter the crowded open Governor’s race. This weekend, reports coming from individuals close to Yoder claim the Congressman rates himself as a 50/50 chance to still run for Governor.
Republicans already vying to replace term-limited Gov. Sam Brownback (R) are Secretary of State Kris Kobach, businessman Wink Hartman, and former state Rep. Ed O’Malley, with Lt. Gov. Jeff Colyer (R) expected to soon announce his gubernatorial candidacy. Therefore, should Mr. Yoder run, his path even to the GOP nomination appears a difficult one. State Assemblyman Travis Allen (R-Huntington Beach) announced his gubernatorial candidacy at the end of last week, becoming the first sitting Republican elected official to do so. Republicans already in the race include former presidential candidate John Cox, ex-pro football player and actor Roosevelt Grier, and former state Assemblyman David Hadley. None are expected to be much of a factor in the race, however. Under California’s jungle primary system, it is likely that two Democrats will advance to the general election. Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), the former San Francisco Mayor, leads the entire field in early polling.
Earlier this year, Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D) indicated that she would announce her political plans by this summer. Now that her deadline is approaching, she is reportedly saying that her re-election decision is still “months away.” No one is yet challenging her, and Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-Bismarck) remains as circumspect as Heitkamp about whether he will jump into the Senate contest. The Congressman continually refuses to rule himself in or out of next year’s Senate race. Sen. Heitkamp has been raising funds for her re-election effort, and had just over $2 million in her campaign account during the last disclosure period. Monitoring her activity that will be reported on the June 30th financial disclosure form should provide interesting information. From a distance, it appears Sen. Heitkamp will seek a second term, and is favored to win re-election in 2018.
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