New Florida Congresswoman Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Miramar) won her special election Democratic primary by just five votes over then-Broward County Commissioner Dale Holness. Former Broward County Commissioner Barbara Sharief finished third, some 3,000 votes behind the top two finishers.
It appears we will see a one-on-one pairing between Rep. Cherfilus-McCormick and Mr. Holness. The latter has already announced his candidacy. Ms. Sharief, on the other hand, will launch a Democratic primary challenge to state Senate Minority Leader Lauren Book (D-Plantation), per her candidacy declaration on Friday. The 20th District Democratic primary, scheduled for August 23rd, will certainly be one to watch. A Los Angeles, CA jury convicted Nebraska US Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R-Lincoln) of three felony counts late last week. The jury ruled he concealed illegal campaign funds that he received from a foreign national, and for lying to federal investigators. At this time, the Congressman remains on the May 10th Nebraska primary ballot, but he has announced that he will resign from the House on March 31st. Rep. Fortenberry says he will appeal the verdict. Since filing has closed, it is unclear as to whether the Congressman’s name will be removed from the primary ballot.
State Sen. Mike Flood (R-Norfolk) is the leading GOP candidate in Mr. Fortenberry’s absence. Retired Air Force officer John Glen Weaver, teacher Thireena Yuki, and welder Curtis Huffman round out the Republican congressional field. The consensus Democratic candidate is state Sen. Patty Pansing Brooks (D-Lincoln). The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the new NE-1 a R+17, down from R+21. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates an average Republican percentage at 56.3 as compared to the Democratic figure of 40.3%. A special election will be called to fill the balance of the term. Republicans, likely in the person of Mr. Flood, are clear favorites to hold the seat. Calling the new Maryland congressional map an “impermissible partisan gerrymander,” a Democratic state judge has disqualified the plan, returning it to the legislature for a re-draw. The ruling declared the map had unfairly apportioned the state on a partisan basis throughout the state’s eight congressional districts. The court gave the legislature only until March 30th to produce, pass, and return a new map. It is probable that the state will appeal the decision. If so, this process will drag on for several weeks. The Maryland primary had already been postponed from June 28th to July 19th.
A new Cygnal poll for the Alabama Daily News and Gray Television (3/16-17; 600 AL likely Republican primary voters) projects retired “Black Hawk Down” pilot and Alabama business owner Mike Durant and former Business Council of Alabama president & CEO Katie Britt heading for a Republican runoff election in late June. The Cygnal results find Mr. Durant, after spending more than $4 million on various media blitzes, leading Ms. Britt 35-28% with early leader, US Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Huntsville), dropping to just 16% support.
As we turn toward April, the signals point to Mr. Brooks being the odd-man out after the May 24th primary. If no candidate receives majority support in the primary, the top two advance into a June 21st runoff election. The Republican nomination appears tantamount to election in November. Sen. Richard Shelby is retiring after serving what will be six full six-year terms. The Fabrizio Lee survey research firm tested the Arizona Republican US Senate electorate on behalf of the Saving Arizona PAC, an organization that billionaire Peter Thiel largely funds. Mr. Thiel supports venture capitalist Blake Masters. This survey shows a much larger undecided factor, 52%, than other pollsters have detected. According to Fabrizio Lee (3/13-14; 800 AZ likely Republican primary voters; live interview & text), Mr. Masters would lead the group, but with only 16% support, closely followed by both Attorney General Tim Brnovich and former solar company executive Jim Lamon, who both recorded 14% preference.
The Arizona primary is not until August 2nd, so this race has several months in which to develop support patterns. The Republican winner will face incumbent Mark Kelly (D) in the general election in one of the most important Senate races on the 2022 political board. Decisions have been made about the special election calendar to replace the late Rep. Don Young (R-Ft. Yukon). Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) has set June 11th as the special primary election day, and the vote will be conducted through the mail. The new top-four jungle primary system will be utilized, meaning that four competitors will advance into the special general election, regardless of party identification. The special general will be run concurrently with the August 16th regular primary election, meaning candidates will be placed separately on the ballot for both the special election and the regular full term.
If no candidate receives majority support in the August 16th special general election, the Ranked Choice Voting System will take effect. Voters would have ranked their four choices from 1-4. If no one receives 50%, the last place finisher is eliminated and the ballots that ranked the last place finisher as the first choice are located, and only their second choices are added to the total. This process continues until one of the candidates reaches 50%. Former Miami-Dade County Commissioner Audrey Edmonson, accusing incumbent US Rep. Frederica Wilson (D-Miami) of not being fully engaged in her job, announced that she will challenge her in the August 23rd Democratic primary. While saying she largely agrees with Rep. Wilson on the issues, Ms. Edmonson criticized the Congresswoman for being the leading user of the proxy voting method the House adopted during at the beginning of the Covid shut down, which remains a current option for members. She called Rep. Wilson an “absent member of Congress.”
The two public polls released since the first of the year found Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town) leading fellow Rep. David McKinley (R-Wheeling) in their West Virginia paired Republican primary contest. A newly released survey from North Star Opinion Research for the West Virginia Chamber of Commerce (3/13-15; 400 WV-2 likely Republican primary voters) reverses that trend and finds Rep. McKinley holding a 38-33% lead.
The West Virginia primary is May 10th, and, as the polls suggest, a close result is expected. This is the first of six redistricting induced incumbent vs. incumbent US House pairings during the current election cycle. Former Missouri Gov. Eric Greitens (R), who resigned from office in 2017 after an extra-marital sex scandal became public, accompanied with sexual assault charges that were later dropped largely because of prosecutorial misconduct, is again on the hot seat. This time, in a custody hearing involving their children, his ex-wife, Sheena Greitens, claims that Mr. Greitens physically abused she and their children. Quickly, both Sen. Josh Hawley (R), a former Missouri Attorney General, and current Attorney General and US Senate candidate Eric Schmitt, both called for him to exit the race, each saying he should not be running but “should be in jail.”
Mr. Greitens has held a small lead in several recent statewide surveys over AG Schmitt and US Reps. Vicky Hartzler (R-Harrisonville/Columbia) and Billy Long (R-Springfield), and state Senate President Dave Schatz (R-Sullivan). This revelation will likely significantly change this Senate primary. Not mentioned as a potential candidate against Rep. Dina Titus (D-Las Vegas) in a new 1st District that is much more Republican, former 4th District Congressman Cresent Hardy (R) filed at the deadline on Friday to officially enter the race. Rep. Titus has expressed displeasure at the configuration of her new district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization reports went from a current D+22 rating to a D+4 under the new plan. As many as four other Republicans may qualify for the primary ballot, but Mr. Hardy appears to be the most formidable of the contenders.
The new 1st District contest, that encompasses part of Las Vegas before moving south to include the cities of Henderson and Boulder City, will become competitive in the Autumn. |
The Rundown BlogLearn more about the candidates running in key elections across the United States. Archives
March 2024
Categories
All
|
|
BIPAC© 2022 BIPAC. All rights reserved
|