Sen. Mark Kelly (D) won the 2020 special statewide election and can expect a tough 2022 challenge when he stands for a full six-year term. One person he won’t have to face, however, is term-limited Gov. Doug Ducey (R). Late last week, Gov. Ducey said he will not challenge Sen. Kelly, thus depriving the GOP of the person who appears as their strongest challenger. Expect the Arizona Senate race to again be key next year as the GOP is still expected to field a strong nominee. With Gov. Ducey out, the candidate field becomes wide open.
While prominent people in other states are already saying they won’t run for the Senate in two years, one person confirming he is at least considering such a campaign is Badger State Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes (D). Sen. Ron Johnson (R) has not yet indicated whether he will seek a third term. When first elected in 2010, he said he would only serve two terms, but now publicly does not ruling out running again.
Mr. Barnes was elected Lt. Governor in 2018 on a ticket with Gov. Tony Evers (D), so he has not stood for election statewide in his own right. He did win a statewide Democratic primary for his current position, however. Lt. Gov. Barnes was first elected to the state Assembly from a Milwaukee district in 2012. He won re-election in 2014 as an unopposed candidate. In 2016, he challenged Democratic state Sen. Lena Taylor in the primary election but lost a 61-39% landslide decision. Former White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders whose father, Mike Huckabee, served as Arkansas’ Governor for over ten years, will reportedly announce her own candidacy for her home state’s top position later today. Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R) is ineligible to seek a third term, so this will be an open seat campaign. The Republican primary will be the key battle, and it is already shaping up as a highly competitive race. Minimally, Ms. Sanders will face Lt. Gov. Tim Griffin and state Attorney General Leslie Rutledge, both of whom have confirmed that they will be gubernatorial candidates.
Arkansas is an early primary state, with the 2022 nomination election being scheduled for some point in March of that year. The eventual Republican nominee should begin the general election campaign as a prohibitive favorite. Eight-term North Carolina Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-Banner Elk/Gastonia) has drawn a 2022 GOP primary challenger. Bo Hines is a former football player for North Carolina State University. He yesterday announced his intention to enter the 5th District primary, but redistricting may change the footprint of virtually every CD in the state. This means, while Mr. Hines may in fact run for Congress, he may or may not eventually face Rep. Foxx. For her part, the Congresswoman has already announced her intention to seek re-election next year.
For the second time since the election, two-term Rep. Pete Stauber (R-Hermantown/Duluth) has confirmed that he is not closing the door on entering the 2022 gubernatorial campaign. He will attempt to capture the Republican nomination in order to challenge Gov. Tim Walz (D).
Rep. Stauber’s consideration of running statewide is likely serious. Minnesota looks to lose a seat in reapportionment, now scheduled for a March 6th announcement, and it will likely mean that Reps. Stauber and freshman Michelle Fischbach (R-Regal) could find themselves competing for the same seat. Both his 8th and her 7th District are the lowest in population. It appears that former Citigroup executive Raymond McGuire’s (D) campaign has jumped out to a strong start, but his opponents may actually benefit from his success, as well. Since mid-July, Mr. McGuire has raised over $5 million for his Mayoral effort and holds $3.7 million cash-on-hand.
Under the City’s public campaign finance law, a candidate not voluntarily agreeing to a $7.3 million spending limit for the primary election allows the barrier to increase at a 50% rate for all other candidates upon the non-conforming candidate exceeding the gross expenditure limit. With $5 million already raised, it appears a virtual certainty that Mr. McGuire will exceed the threshold, thus increasing the spending limit for his opponents. Two-term Pittsburgh Mayor Bill Peduto looks to face a Democratic primary challenge from his political left. State Rep. Ed Gainey (D-Pittsburgh) announced yesterday that he will run for Mayor later this year. He will first have to dislodge incumbent Democrat Peduto in the party primary, an election that will be held on May 18th. Winning the Democratic primary is tantamount to claiming the seat in November.
Though Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Ft. Walton Beach/Pensacola) clearly shot down any idea that he was considering challenging Sen. Marco Rubio in next year’s Republican primary, he did admit to looking at a run for state Agriculture Commissioner. The incumbent, Democrat Nikki Fried, was elected in 2018 with the barest of percentages, 50.04%. All of the Florida state constitutional offices are on the ballot next year. The top vote getter scored only 52%, so we can expect competitive races from the top of the 2022 Florida ballot to the bottom.
Rep. Marcia Fudge (D-Cleveland) is expected to win confirmation to her new post as Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, so the Democratic field to replace her in the safe congressional seat is already forming. Yesterday, former state Sen. Shirley Smith indicated she would join the special Democratic primary that will be scheduled upon Rep. Fudge’s official resignation. Already saying they will run are former state Senators Jeff Johnson and Nina Turner, ex-state Rep. John Barnes, and Cuyahoga County Councilwoman Shontel Brown.
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