Daniel Koh, the former chief of staff to Boston Mayor Marty Walsh (D) who lost to now-Rep. Lori Trahan (D-Lowell) by just 145 votes in the 2018 crowded Democratic primary, has filed a 2020 committee with the Federal Election Commission in order to begin raising money. Candidate filing doesn’t close until May 5th for the September 1st primary, so Mr. Koh still has time to make a final decision about whether to become an official candidate.
Since the election, Rep. Trahan has come under a House Ethics Committee investigation for possible campaign finance irregularities and Mr. Koh has been elected a town Selectman in the northern Massachusetts domain of Andover. Such a primary contest would likely begin with a toss-up rating. Quinnipiac University just released their latest national survey (1/22-27; 827 registered and self-identified Democratic voters) and while the national polls mean little at this point in the cycle when state voting is about to begin, this poll does yield some interesting information.
The ballot test finds former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) at the top of the heap, 28-21%, with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) taking 15% in third position. With more than $200 million in spending behind his national effort, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg moves into fourth position with 8%, while Sen. Amy Klobuchar bumps to 7 percent. Therefore, it is former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg who seems to be taking the hit from the Bloomberg rise. In the Q-Poll, Mr. Buttigieg falls to 6%, largely because he and the ex-New York City Mayor are attempting to convince the same Democratic voting base segment, that is the more centrist voter who is looking for an alternative to Mr. Biden. The University of California at Berkeley released their new Golden State Democratic study (1/15-21; 2,895 likely CA Democratic primary voters; online), which projects Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) now taking the lead in a place where the polling results have bounced around during the past several months. UCB finds Sanders topping the Democratic candidate pack with 28% while Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) places second at 20% and former Vice President Joe Biden drops to 15 percent. Former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, ex-NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), and businessman Andrew Yang follow in order with 7-6-5-4%.
Under the Democratic National Committee delegate apportionment rules, a candidate must receive 15% of the at-large popular vote in order to qualify for committed delegate votes. In this instance, Sens. Sanders, Warren, and Mr. Biden would split the states 144 at-large votes. The remaining first ballot votes (California, the largest delegation, has a total of 415 votes) will be decided through the congressional district totals. If the UCB proportion were to be the final result, Sen. Sanders would receive 64 at-large delegate votes, Warren 46, and Biden 34. The eight Republican county chairmen who together represent the 27th Congressional District GOP voters chose state Sen. Chris Jacobs (R-Orchard Park) in their meeting over the weekend. Sen. Jacobs nipped fellow state Sen. Rob Ortt (R-Tonawanda), Erie County Comptroller Stefan Mychajliw, and attorney and Fox News contributor Beth Parlato. The special election will soon be scheduled for April 28th. Democrats are expected to nominate former Grand Island Town Supervisor Nate McMurray who came within one point of upending now-resigned incumbent Chris Collins (R) in the 2018 election.
While Sen. Ortt, Comptroller Mychajliw, and Ms. Parlato were not the county chairmen’s choice, they all could still enter the regular Republican primary because the candidate filing period does not close until April 2nd. Democrats have a chance to take the special election because conservative voters could stay at home since Sen. Jacobs has a relatively liberal voting record and he made disparaging remarks about then-candidate Donald Trump, while Democrats will be turning out in big numbers to vote for their presidential candidate. New Jersey Republican Party leaders successfully convinced venture capitalist David Richter to end his primary challenge of recent party switching Congressman Jeff Van Drew (R-Dennis Township/Atlantic City) and will instead oppose freshman Democrat Andy Kim (Bordentown) in the neighboring 3rd District.
The party leaders saved a potentially expensive primary for Mr. Van Drew who, as most party switchers find, could be vulnerable in his first Republican nomination contest. Mr. Richter clearly has the ability to self-fund his campaign, and now will center his efforts against Rep. Kim instead of another Republican. Upon exiting his 2nd District foray Mr. Richter publicly endorsed Rep. Van Drew and indicated his desire in running for Congress is to “flip a congressional seat.” Reports are surfacing that Rep. Doug Collins (R-Gainesville) is imminently going to announce his candidacy against appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R). If he moves forward, Rep. Collins will enter a jungle primary with all aspirants on the same ballot. The primary election will be held concurrently with the regular general election, November 3rd. If no one receives a majority vote, a run-off between the top two finishers will be held January 5, 2021. The winner serves the balance of resigned Sen. Johnny Isakson’s (R) final term. This is a developing story.
The new national Echelon Insight poll (1/20-23; 474 US likely Democratic nomination event voters) finds a tight race at the top of the Democratic presidential contest, which is not surprising, but also detects former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg moving into double digits for the first time. The Echelon results find former Vice President Joe Biden leading the candidate pack with 26%, as Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) follows closely at 23. In third place is Mr. Bloomberg with 13%, slightly ahead of Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s 10%, while former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg is well back with 7%, but ahead of Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) and businessman Andrew Yang who trail with 3% apiece.
Mr. Bloomberg already spending more than $200 million on media advertising is advancing him up the national polling charts, but will the move translate into definitive delegate votes at the Democratic National Convention? This question will remain unanswered for the foreseeable future. New York, with its 274 first ballot delegates, the second largest contingent at the Democratic National Convention, has not been frequently polled during this cycle. This is due to the state having a late April 28th Democratic presidential primary. Civis Analytics, however, just completed a survey of the state’s electorate and finds former Vice President Joe Biden holding a healthy lead, but with ex-New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg also breaking into double digits to the point where he would qualify for committed delegate votes.
The Civis results find Mr. Biden posting a 30-17-17-14% spread over Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Mr. Bloomberg, while Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) drops to fourth place. Ex-South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, businessman Andrew Yang, and billionaire Tom Steyer all trail with 7-4-4%, respectively. The next Democratic presidential forum, scheduled for February 7th from Manchester, NH, will feature a returning candidate. The Democratic National Committee yesterday announced that businessman Andrew Yang has again earned a debate podium, expanding the number of participants to at least seven. Also on stage will be former Vice President Joe Biden, Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), and billionaire Tom Steyer.
To qualify for the New Hampshire debate, candidates must prove that at least 225,000 people have contributed to their campaigns and have reached 5% support in at least two Democratic National Committee sanctioned polls, or topped 7% in one of the four early states: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, or South Carolina. Last week, the New Jersey Republican Party leaders were successful in coaxing candidates away from forcing competitive primaries in challenge races and instead finding other places to run. Former congressional committee staff member Rosemary Becchi, instead of battling state Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr. for the Republican nomination, jumped from the 7th District to the 11th, and will now battle freshman Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill (Montclair/ Morristown).
Now, the party leaders and even former Governor Chris Christie (R) are attempting to convince venture capitalist David Richter to refrain from challenging party-switching Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-Dennis Township/Atlantic City) and instead move into the neighboring 3rd District to oppose freshman Democrat Andy Kim (D-Bordentown). Some of the Republican leaders have already endorsed former Burlington County Freeholder Kate Gibbs, but her fundraising has so far been disappointing thus the opportunity lies for a stronger candidate to come forward. |
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