Yesterday, we covered that Gov. Matt Bevin (R) has filed to run for re-election but chose a new running mate, state Sen. Ralph Alvarado (R-Winchester). With the 2019 candidate filing deadline occurring today, US Rep. James Comer (R-Tompkinsville), who lost the 2015 statewide Republican gubernatorial primary to Mr. Bevin by just 83 votes and had been openly contemplating running for Governor again, confirmed that he would not oppose Gov. Bevin this year.
Therefore, the Kentucky gubernatorial field appears set. Gov. Bevin will face state Rep. Robert Goforth (R-East Bernstadt) in the Republican primary while Attorney General Andy Beshear, former state Auditor Adam Edelen, and state House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins (D-Sandy Hook) are the significant candidates doing battle for the Democratic nomination. The Kentucky primary is set for May 21st. The state does not utilize a run-off system. This year’s general election is scheduled for November 5th. A new LJR Custom Strategies survey conducted for the Education Reform Now Advocacy group (1/14-27; 600 LA likely voters), a supporter of Gov. John Bel Edwards (D), finds the first-term state chief executive way ahead of his two current prospective Republican opponents.
According to the LJR results, Gov. Edwards leads Rep. Ralph Abraham (R-Alto/ Monroe) and land developer Eddie Rispone (R), 45-17-4%, if the state’s jungle primary were held in the present time. But, this respondent group consisted of 53% self-identified Democrats, 34% Republican, and 13% unaffiliated. Typically, the Louisiana electorate has a much different complexion. A December poll from Remington Research conducted for Rep. Abraham found that he and Gov. Edwards would tie at 44% apiece if the two advanced into the general election, providing an example of early polling disparity. Starbucks former CEO Howard Schultz publicly clarified his presidential status. He confirms considering becoming a candidate, but, if he moves forward, it will be as an Independent because of his increasing disgust with the two major political parties.
Qualifying for the ballot in all 50 states is no easy task. Therefore, if Mr. Schultz is going to pursue this option, he will have to commit early in the process in order to obtain more than 860,000 petition signatures and abide by all of the states’ unique, and sometime onerous, ballot qualification regulations, particularly in Arizona, California, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Texas, and Virginia. Pennsylvania Rep. Tom Marino (R-Williamsport) just resigned from the House, and Gov. Tom Wolf (D) has called the special election to fill the vacancy for May 21st, concurrent with the state’s municipal primary. Each political party will now meet in convention to choose a special election nominee. Those selected will face each other on May 21st in a plurality election, with the winner serving the balance of the current term. Republicans will be favored to hold what should be a safe GOP district.
Two weeks ago, state Sen. Brandon Beach (R-Alpharetta) filed a federal campaign committee presumably to become a congressional candidate, opposing freshman US Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Marietta). During the middle of last week defeated Rep. Karen Handel (R-Roswell) indicated that she is seriously considering seeking a re-match with the new Congresswoman who outpaced her in November by less than a percentage point.
Just before the weekend, former state Sen. Judson Hill (R), a former congressional candidate, is again a potential contender. Additionally, Fulton County Commissioner Liz Hausmann and Alpharetta City Councilman Ben Burnett are also reported as potential GOP candidates. With this much action so early in the new election cycle, it is clear that this formerly Republican district will be a major GOP conversion target next year. Nevada former state Assemblyman Jim Marchant (R) has filed a 2020 congressional political committee with the Federal Election Commission, signaling he is preparing to challenge Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Las Vegas) next year.
Mr. Horsford was first elected in 2012 but defeated for re-election two years later by Republican Cresent Hardy, who Democrat Ruben Kihuen then unseated in 2016. In the 2018 open seat, Mr. Horsford returned to the House, this time defeating Mr. Hardy when Rep. Kihuen declined to seek re-election due to sexual harassment allegations. Now, it is already obvious that Rep. Horsford will again face a contested re-election campaign in what has proven itself a swing district. Freshman New York Rep. Max Rose (D-Staten Island) unseated Rep. Dan Donovan (R-Staten Island) in November scoring an upset victory. We can be assured of a very active 2020 political contest in this district. Former Representative and convicted felon Michael Grimm (R) has already indicated that he will run again. Late last week, state Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis (R-Staten Island) filed a campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission, suggesting that a multi-candidate Republican primary is a likelihood.
Gov. Matt Bevin (R), working to overcome poor approval ratings as he heads into a 2019 re-election campaign, has now officially filed for re-election. Speculation was rampant that the Governor would not file even though he said publicly on several occasions that he would be a candidate.
As Gov. Bevin had indicated, the delay in filing was due to his consideration of changing running mates, a decision that he decided to make. Lt. Gov. Jenean Hampton will not be Gov. Bevin’s choice to continue in her current position should he win re-election. His new running mate is state Sen. Ralph Alvarado (R-Winchester). Now, attention turns to US Rep. James Comer (R-Tompkinsville). He has been considering again running for Governor but must decide by tomorrow’s candidate filing deadline. He originally said he would not oppose Gov. Bevin, but recent comments suggest that he is considering changing his mind. Mr. Comer, before his election to Congress, lost the 2015 statewide Republican gubernatorial primary to Mr. Bevin by just 83 votes. Conventional political wisdom suggests that the Republican Senatorial primary will be a crowded affair with the winner having a strong chance of unseating Sen. Doug Jones (D), who won the 2017 controversial Alabama special election. Yesterday, Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-Mobile), always believed to be a near-sure Senatorial candidate, indicated he would make his 2020 decision known in the next few weeks. All signals suggest that the Congressman will enter the race.
Manufacturing company owner and retired Army Ranger John James (R), who did much better in a losing effort against Sen. Debbie Stabenow (52-46%) than originally projected even in a bad year for Michigan Republicans, may challenge Sen. Gary Peters (D) next year. Mr. James is not denying he is interested in again seeking political office, and National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman Todd Young (R-IN) continues to sing Mr. James’ praises as a viable candidate.
Should he run in 2020, Mr. James’ campaign effort will be taken much more seriously, but the political road ahead will remain rocky despite Sen. Peters rather tepid job approval ratio (33:28%; according to the Morning Consult national polling organization in their pre-election survey of all 100 Senators). |
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