Cumberland County Commissioner and disabled Army veteran Charles Evans (D) announced that he will run for the 8th District Democratic nomination to challenge five-term Rep. Richard Hudson (R-Concord) next year. In a re-crafted 8th District for the 2020 election that made the seat more Democratic, Rep. Hudson won a 53-47% victory over former state Supreme Court Justice Patricia Timmons-Goodson (D).
The state legislature will re-draw the congressional map based upon the new 2020 census data, and add an additional congressional seat awarded in reapportionment. The addition will make all the districts much different in configuration, so it is probable that Mr. Hudson’s seat will again become more Republican for the remainder of the decade.
Victory Insights went into the field in Florida to query a sample of 600 Florida likely voters just after the announcement from US Representative and former Governor Charlie Crist (D-St. Petersburg) that he would enter the 2020 statewide race.
According to VI, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) would lead all the announced and potential contenders. Against Rep. Crist, Gov. DeSantis would hold a six-point, 53-47% advantage. If US Rep. Val Demings (D-Orlando) were to make the race and win the party nomination, she would trail Gov. DeSantis, 54-46%. Should Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried, who is soon expected to announce her own gubernatorial candidacy, oppose DeSantis, the Governor would also lead 53-47%.
Victory Insights also created a simulated chance of victory based upon the responses. In all three instances, Gov. DeSantis scores extremely well. He would have a 97% chance of beating Demings, 93% likelihood of defeating Fried, and a 90% probability of attaining victory against Crist.
In the Democratic primary, Rep. Crist would top Rep. Demings and Commissioner Fried, 53-30-17%, respectively.
Baltimore County Executive Johnny Olszewski (D), who was forecast to be one of the top contenders for the 2020 Democratic gubernatorial nomination, won’t run. Yesterday, he announced that he will seek re-election to his current position, thus bypassing the opportunity to run for Governor for what could be a nine-year period assuming the 2022 winner runs for and wins a second term in 2026.
Virginia Republicans will meet in a unique convention on Saturday where delegates will drive to one of 39 different assigned locations to cast a ranked choice ballot for Governor, Lt. Governor, and Attorney General. Democrats will choose their nominees in a traditional primary on June 8th.
The results of the various GOP races, however, won’t be known until several days after the convention concludes. Party officials will undergo a laborious task of calculating each voter’s multiple choices should no contender receive majority support on the first ballot, which is probable for each of the three contests.
After holding a fundraiser with President Joe Biden that grossed at least $500,000 for her re-election campaign, Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) has scheduled a news conference for this morning where she will announce her decision not to run for a second term. Further details as to her reasoning will be forthcoming. Democrats will retain the Mayoral slot, but now we will see a wide-open campaign to replace the incumbent who came to national prominence when she was at one time under consideration to be Mr. Biden’s running mate.
Aramis Ayala (D), who was the State’s Attorney for the district that includes Orange (Orlando) and Osceola Counties, formed an exploratory campaign committee to assess her chances of competing against Sen. Marco Rubio (R) next year.
Ms. Ayala was elected to one term in her post but chose not to seek re-election. She refused to ask for the death penalty in murder cases, so then-Gov. Rick Scott (R) transferred many capital cases to other jurisdictions. Court rulings later upheld Mr. Scott’s actions after Ms. Ayala protested.
A day after Rep. Charlie Crist (D-St. Petersburg) announced his gubernatorial campaign, we already see the first of what is assumed will be a plethora of Democrats coming forward to declare their candidacies in the politically marginal district self-contained within Pinellas County in the Tampa Bay region.
Eric Lynn (D), a former Obama Administration Defense Department official who ran unsuccessfully for the state House of Representatives, announced yesterday that he will enter the open congressional contest next year. The first Republican in the race is Anna Paulina Luna, the party’s 2020 nominee who held Rep. Crist to a 53-47% victory margin.
Survey USA, polling for KABC television in Los Angeles, released their latest study of the California electorate (4/30-5/2; 642 CA registered voters; live interview) regarding whether Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) should be recalled from office. The results found 36% saying they would vote to recall while 47% said they want to retain the Governor.
In terms of the replacement election should Mr. Newsom lose the recall question, no candidate even reached 10% support. John Cox (R), the 2018 finalist against Newsom in the general election, recorded 9% support and no other candidate including Caitlin Jenner, who has been receiving the most media attention, even reached the 6% plateau.
On the good news front for Mr. Newsom, 59% of those surveyed said they believe the state’s response to the Coronavirus was adequate, while only 21% said it was an over-reaction. In terms of awarding a letter grade for the response, only 19% gave the state a D or F grade, while another 19% awarded the COVID response with an A rating.
The Cincinnati Mayoral primary was held on Tuesday, and the general election will feature two candidates who, among other commonalities, have both lost to US Rep. Steve Chabot (R-Cincinnati).
The first-place finisher was Hamilton County Clerk of Courts Aftab Pureval (D), who lost the 2018 congressional race to Mr. Chabot in a 51-47% margin. Mr. Pureval captured 39% in Tuesday’s Mayoral result. The second runoff qualifier is 81-year-old City Councilman and former US Congressman David Mann (D). In 1994 when Rep. Chabot was first elected to the House, he unseated Mr. Mann. On Tuesday, the Councilman garnered 29% of the vote, a full 13 points ahead of the third-place finisher, state Senator Cecil Thomas (D-Cincinnati).
Incumbent Mayor John Cranley (D), who also lost to Rep. Chabot in 2006, was ineligible to seek a third term. He is likely to soon announce his entry into the 2022 Governor’s race.
Solar company CEO Jim Lamon (R) yesterday declared his US Senate candidacy yesterday, becoming the first credible Republican to enter the race against incumbent Mark Kelly (D). Sen. Kelly was elected in a 2020 special election and now must stand for a full six-year term next year.
Attorney General Mark Brnovich and Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) are also potential GOP candidates, among others, so a Republican primary is expected. The Arizona race again portends to become an important national campaign particularly with the Senate majority at stake in each and every federal statewide contest.
The Rundown Blog
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