A new Monmouth University poll (6/21-24; 400 VA “potential” voters) finds two-term Rep. Barbara Comstock (R-McLean) falling behind the new Democratic nominee, state Sen. Jennifer Wexton (D-Loudon). According to Monmouth’s likely voter model, challenger Wexton would lead incumbent Comstock, 50-41%. Among the full voter sample, the Wexton margin was 49-39%.
The poll is weighted, but the results may be a bit skewed because the survey sample is far from the actual voter numbers. According to Monmouth, and since Virginia does not register voters by party estimates must be used, 45% of the district voters are Democrats and 42% Republican. The Independent factor is 13%. Yet, for this sample, Independents comprise 50% of the respondent base compared to 25% for both Democrats and Republicans. Monmouth’s own error factor suggests a 10.1% variance just among Republicans, for example. Since Rep. Comstock’s support level among the dominant Independent group was only 36-45%, her actual overall standing may be stronger.
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