Since Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Miami) announced that she would not seek re-election, this seat has been at the top of the national Democratic conversion list. That is largely because President Trump lost here by 20 percentage points and is the most Democratic district in the nation to elect a Republican House member. But, the Democrats’ new hold on this seat may not be as tight as once thought.
According to a McLaughlin & Associates poll for the Maria Elvira Salazar campaign (9/10-13; 400 FL-27 likely voters), the Republican nominee, an Emmy winning Spanish language news reporter, holds a 51-42% lead over former Health and Human Services secretary and ex-University of Miami president Donna Shalala (D). The Shalala campaign countered with their own internal Bendixen & Amandi International poll (8/29-9/2; 600 FL-27 registered voters), which gave their candidate a 46-42% advantage. Though many prognosticators have this seat rated as Likely Democratic, the numbers appear to be telling a different story.
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