California: Villaraigosa Losing Steam

J. Wallin Opinion Research and Tulchin Research teamed up to conduct a new survey of the California electorate (3/30-4/4; 800 CA likely voters), which again finds Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) leading the pack of candidates just as he consistently has over the course of the last year.  The most significant new finding is former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa who has fallen to only 7% support.  Republican businessman John Cox, a former presidential and Illinois US Senate candidate, is second with 16% and has a chance of advancing through the June 5th jungle primary.  State Treasurer John Chiang (D) and state Assemblyman Travis Allen (R-Huntington Beach) record 9%, apiece.  The top two finishers, regardless of political party affiliation and percentage attained, will advance to the November 6th general election.
 
In the last year, 16 polls have been released for this race, and Mr. Newsom has led them all, falling into a range between 22 and 31%.  He is clearly the favorite to finish first in June, and is likely headed to victory in November.

--Jim Ellis