Rep. Martha McSally’s (R-Tucson) camp just released their internal Arizona Senate Republican primary poll that places the Congresswoman slightly ahead of former state Senator Kelli Ward. According the WPA Intelligence survey (11/15-16; 500 AZ likely GOP primary voters), Rep. McSally holds a slight 38-36% edge over Ms. Ward. The Congresswoman has yet to announce that she is entering the open US Senate race, but the fact that her political people are releasing statewide data provides further evidence for the supposition that she will soon become a candidate. Sen. Jeff Flake (R) is retiring after one term. The eventual Republican nominee will likely face Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Phoenix), who is quickly becoming the consensus Democratic candidate.
--Jim Ellis Two years ago, Illinois Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D-Chicago) announced that he would not seek re-election, only to reverse course and run for a 13th term. This year, he filed qualification papers to seek a ballot position in 2018, but now he is reportedly going to announce later today that he is going to retire. Illinois’ 4th District is 70% Hispanic and heavily Democratic. Both Hillary Clinton and President Obama exceeded 80% of the vote in the most recent pair of national elections. Cook County Commissioner Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D) is expected to quickly file to run, but with the December 4th candidate filing deadline fast approaching, little time remains for prospective candidates to make a decision. All the political action will be in the March 20th Democratic primary. The winner of that plurality contest will claim the seat in the November 2018 general election.
--Jim Ellis Retiring state House Speaker Joe Straus (R-San Antonio) announced last month that he would not seek re-election next year, and speculation immediately began about the moderate legislative leader challenging Gov. Greg Abbott either in the Republican primary or as an Independent in the general election. Yesterday, Mr. Straus quelled such speculation saying that he may eventually consider running statewide but it would be highly unlikely he will do so before the 2022 election cycle. At this point, Gov. Abbott faces little in the way of Democratic or Republican opposition.
--Jim Ellis Before the Thanksgiving holiday break, the four most recent polls all projected Democratic former US Attorney Doug Jones to be leading former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore (R) by as many as eight percentage points, an advantage largely derived from sexual misconduct allegations levied against the Judge from 38 years ago. Now, however, we see two new polls both with large over-samples, that find Moore climbing back into the top spot.
WT&S Consulting (11/18-20; 11,641 AL registered voters) sees Moore moving back in front, 46-40%. On the heels of this survey, the Strategy Research organization polling for the Raycom News Network (11/20-21; 3,000 AL likely voters) projects a 47-45% Moore edge. Though the sizable polling samples should provide a more accurate reading, these very large numbers of survey interviews compiled in a short amount of time suggest the polls were taken through an automated response device. This means the reliability factor is likely lower. While Judge Moore may or may not be leading the race, it appears he is beginning to rebound from the sex scandal. His biggest problem is resources, however, as Mr. Jones will enjoy a major spending advantage in the closing days. --Jim Ellis After Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Miami) announced her retirement many individuals, mostly Democrats, began to came forward and declare their congressional candidacies. One was Republican Raquel Regalado, a former Miami-Dade County School Board member and daughter of city of Miami Mayor Tomas Regalado (R). After raising only $15,000 for her campaign through the September 30th financial reporting period, last among the eight major candidates, Ms. Regalado has now decided to end her short-lived congressional campaign. The South Florida open 27th District is the Democrats best conversion target in the nation, and currently their field of candidates is politically stronger than the Republican side. But, Florida has a long primary cycle that won’t be decided until August 28th. Still, the eventual Democratic nominee will be rated as the favorite to win in November, at least until the general election campaign finally takes shape.
--Jim Ellis After Rep. Bob Goodlatte (R-Roanoke) announced he would retire at the end of this Congress, several GOP candidates immediately jumped into the open primary campaign in this safest of Virginia Republican districts. In addition to state Delegate Ben Cline (R-Lexington) and Republican National Committeewoman Cynthia Dunbar, the Rockingham-Harrisonburg Clerk of Court, Chaz Haywood, has also joined the nomination contest. The eventual Republican nominee will be a heavy favorite in the general election, but the party leaders have not yet decided whether the nomination contest will be decided by primary or district convention.
--Jim Ellis In what will likely be a closing theme in the Alabama Senate race as more Republicans see their alternative as supporting embattled GOP nominee Roy Moore or losing another seat in the already tight US Senate, President Trump issued his endorsement yesterday. While saying that allegations alone from decades ago should not be allowed to destroy a person’s life, the President believes that Judge Moore will still step aside if the claims are true. Otherwise, Mr. Trump said, “we don’t need a liberal person in there…” meaning Democrat Doug Jones being elected to the Senate.
The Alabama special election to permanently replace former Sen. Jeff Sessions (R), now US Attorney General, is scheduled for December 12th. Republicans have no mechanism of removing Moore from the ballot since the allegations came well within the 76-day period before the election, the time when the ballots become frozen under Alabama election law. The latest polling gives Mr. Jones a slight lead, and he has a major resource advantage as we approach the closing days. --Jim Ellis On the heels of Rep. Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph) announcing that he will not enter the US Senate race to challenge three-term incumbent Debbie Stabenow (D), another individual has come forward. Michigan venture capitalist Sandy Pensler, founder of Pensler Capital, announced that he will run for the Senate. He joins a Republican primary field that includes Detroit area manufacturing company CEO and former Army Ranger John James and retired state Supreme Court Chief Justice Bob Young. Sen. Stabenow is favored for re-election.
--Jim Ellis We haven’t heard much lately from Maine Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-North Haven/Portland), but the Congresswoman did confirm this week that she is still considering entering next year’s competitive open Governor’s race. Ten Democrats have already announced for the position, including Attorney General Janet Mills (an appointed position in Maine), former state House Speaker Mark Eves, state Sen. Mark Dion (D-Westbrook), and ex-state Sen. Jim Boyle. Republicans are led by state Senate President Mike Thibodeau (R-Liberty), state Senate Majority Leader Garrett Mason (R-Lisbon), state House Minority Leader Ken Fredette (R-Danforth/Washington County), and former state Health & Human Services Commissioner Mary Mayhew. Gov. Paul LePage (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.
--Jim Ellis There has been a great deal of speculation surrounding whether 83-year old Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) will seek re-election next year. While the Senator indicates that he is running, he continually leaves open the option to change his mind. Boyd Matheson, a former chief of staff to Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT), was contemplating running for the Senate should Mr. Hatch retire. This week, Mr. Matheson said he won’t run meaning that Sen. Hatch has firmly decided to seek re-election, or the idea that former presidential nominee Mitt Romney would run in an open seat – a move Sen. Hatch says he would support – is gaining more credibility. The Utah candidate filing deadline is March 15th, so much time still remains for this situation to become clearer.
--Jim Ellis |
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