There has been little in the way of fanfare surrounding a Republican opponent for freshman Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Holly/ Lansing) after she defeated two-term Rep. Mike Bishop (R) last November. Now, State Board of Education member Nikki Snyder (R) says she is close to making the decision to challenge the new Congresswoman.
Ms. Slotkin was one of the top fundraisers on the congressional circuit last year, spending more than $7.3 million on her campaign. One reason activity has been slow in this district and in the 11th CD featuring freshman Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Rochester Hills/Livonia) is that Michigan is losing a seat in reapportionment, meaning that any new member could quickly see their seat collapsed into another district. There is a better chance more activity will be present in the next cycle when the new district lines become known. Quinnipiac University is out with a new poll (9/19-23; 1,337 US registered voters; 561 self-identified Democrats and Independents who lean Democratic), and for the first time their numbers put Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) ahead of former Vice President Joe Biden. The results show Warren with 27% and Biden trailing slightly with 25%. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is the only other candidate in double-digits, scoring 16%. South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg posted 7% support while Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) drops all the way to 3 percent. In the August Q-Poll, Mr. Biden led Sen. Warren 32-19%.
Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers (D) has called a quick election to replace resigned Rep. Sean Duffy (R-Wausau). The Governor announced late yesterday that the special election to fill the unexpired term will be set for January 27, 2020, with a special primary on December 30, 2019. The candidate filing deadline is December 2nd. The schedule is a bit of a surprise since the state will have municipal and judicial elections, the latter featuring statewide contests, on April 7th, the same day as the state’s presidential primary.
In his statement, Gov. Evers said he was calling an early election because, “[o]ur rural communities have been directly affected by unproductive trade wars, political attacks on health care and public education, and economic uncertainty because of the volatility we’re seeing in Washington, D.C.” A Republican Party spokesman criticized the schedule accusing Evers of attempting to depress rural voter turnout for the April 7th elections. Others believed, however, that Democrats would be in the more advantageous position for the April election because their presidential primary would be bringing an increased number of party members to the polls. Sen. Susan Collins (R) drew another Democratic opponent yesterday. Retired Air Force Major General Jon Treacy announced his US Senate candidacy, joining state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D-Freeport) and former gubernatorial candidate Betsy Sweet in the primary campaign.
The Maine primary will be decided June 9th, after a March 16th candidate filing deadline. Gen. Treacy will certainly start out substantially behind Ms. Gideon in the money race. She attracted $1.059 million in just her first few days of campaigning post her late June announcement. The general election looks to be competitive, but Sen. Collins begins in a clear favorite position. Monmouth University again tested the first-in-the-nation primary state of New Hampshire (9/17-21; 401 NH likely Democratic primary voters) and once more sees a close battle brewing for first place between Sen. Elizabeth Warren (27%) and former Vice President Joe Biden (25%). The surprise finding is Sen. Bernie Sanders’ poor standing (12%), which is uncharacteristic of where he normally polls in the Granite State. On the other hand, Mayor Pete Buttigieg out-performs his normal positioning, breaking into double digits with 10%.
Suffolk University in Boston released the results of their new Nevada survey (9/19-23; 500 NV likely Democratic caucus attenders) and found former Vice President Joe Biden returning to first place. Suffolk sees a tight contest between Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), 23-19%, with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) recording 14% support. Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) scores a disappointing 4% in her neighboring state, just ahead of South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg and New York City businessman Andrew Yang who both register 3% preference. Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) has 2%, and all others post 1% or less.
A veteran House member who is on reporters’ retirement-potential list is signaling that he will return to run for an 18th term. Michigan Rep. Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph), the former chairman of the House Energy & Commerce Committee who was first elected in 1986, is stopping short of announcing for re-election but giving every indication that he will run. He had raised almost $700,000 at the end of June and has already printed 2020 campaign materials.
In 2018, Mr. Upton faced his toughest re-election, winning 50-46% against physician Matt Longjohn (D). Dr. Longjohn is a potential 2020 candidate, but state Rep. Jon Hoadley (D-Kalamazoo) has already announced his congressional candidacy. Baton Rouge-based JMC Enterprises went back into the field to test the Louisiana electorate in anticipation of the state’s October 12th gubernatorial election. The survey (9/19-21; 550 LA likely voters) finds Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) hitting the 48% mark against his two major opponents, US Rep. Ralph Abraham (R-Alto/Monroe) and developer Eddie Rispone (R). The two Republicans record 22 and 20%, but this time it’s Rispone who jumps into second position. Previously, Rep. Abraham had consistently been second. Mr. Rispone is spending millions of his own dollars to advertise.
JMC completed a poll last week (9/14-17; 600 LA likely voters) that projected Gov. Edwards with only 41%. If a candidate reaches majority support in the October election, the individual is elected outright. If no one secures 50%, the top two will face each other in a run-off election on November 16th. Now that Sen. Joe Manchin (D) has said he will not enter the 2020 Governor’s race, incumbent Jim Justice (R) is drawing new Democratic opponents. The latest, and perhaps most significant, is state Sen. Ron Stollings (D-Madison) who carried a district that President Trump won with a 59 percentage point margin. At this point, Sen. Stollings is the only Democrat in the field of four candidates with electoral experience. Gov. Justice has two Republican primary opponents, former state Commerce Secretary Woody Thrasher and ex-state Delegate Mike Folk.
The Democratic National Committee leadership has again made qualifying for the national debate forums more difficult. Though the requirements are in place for the October debate from the Columbus, Ohio area on October 15-16, the new conditions may cull the number of future participants even further.
To qualify for the November and December forums, candidates will need to prove they have 165,000 donors, up from 130,000, and hit 3% polling support in at least four designated surveys. The Committee also added a 5% requirement from at least two polls from electorate studies in the first four voting states: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. The September debate featured ten participants, but at least eleven have qualified for October with the possibility of another being added. |
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