Siena College and the New York Times are again partnering to produce a series of political polls as they did last year. Yesterday, mid-June results were made available for Senate races in Arizona, Michigan, and North Carolina. The results are consistent with what we have been seeing for quite some time in these three frequently polled states.
Retired astronaut Mark Kelly and Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) maintain their recent approximate ten-point advantages over appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R-AZ) and manufacturing company owner John James (R) in Arizona and Michigan, respectively. The North Carolina race, which is predicted to seesaw between Sen. Thom Tillis (R) and former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) again produces a tight result for Siena/NYT. We’ve seen six similar polls released for the state in June, including S/NYT, and the margin between the two candidates hover between one and four points. The Siena/NYT result shows a three-point edge for Mr. Cunningham. Of the six surveys, four find the Democrat slightly ahead with two favoring Sen. Tillis in a similar realm. Fox News surveyed the Texas Senate race (6/20-24; 1,001 TX registered voters) and paired incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R) with both of the Democratic runoff candidates, retired Army helicopter pilot M.J. Hegar and state Sen. Royce West (D-Dallas). Sen. Cornyn’s standing against both potential opponents is virtually the same. He tops Ms. Hegar, 46-36%, and Sen. West, 47-37%. The postponed Texas Democratic runoff is scheduled for July 14th.
There has been some talk that the Democratic primary challenge to Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wyckoff/Bergen County) could get close but a new TargetSmart poll (released 6/25; 400 NJ-5 likely Democratic primary voters) dispels such a notion. According to the Target data, Rep. Gottheimer would destroy Glen Rock town Councilwoman Arati Kreibich by a 66-23% count. Such a margin suggests that Mr. Gottheimer will easily win re-nomination to a third term. The postponed New Jersey primary is scheduled for July 7th.
Though little change has happened in the Kentucky Democratic US Senate primary election since Tuesday night’s reporting, the race has become closer. After the Secretary of State indicated that results would not be forthcoming until June 30th with an estimated 625,000 votes left to count, Fayette County, the state’s second largest municipality, did release some preliminary numbers and the early result is surprising.
Despite being candidate Amy McGrath’s home county, the very early Fayette numbers project state Rep. Charles Booker (D-Louisville) polling at 72%. This allows him to cut his statewide deficit to 4,066 votes from 5,104. Jefferson County, the state’s largest local entity with a population of more than 760,000 people and is home to Rep. Booker, has yet to report any tallies. Therefore, the projection that the election would tighten even more once the bevy of votes are counted has even more legs especially after seeing the preliminary Fayette returns. In 2018, Georgia’s 7th District was decided by just 419 votes. Now, in an open seat campaign, we see a poll suggesting that another close finish is likely to occur. According to a post-primary Public Policy Polling survey (6/19-20; 589 GA-7 registered voters), 2018 Democratic nominee Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) leads retired Navy officer and physician Rich McCormick (R), 42-39%, well within the polling margin of error.
More attention is being paid to Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District, which occupies much of the Bucks County area in suburban Philadelphia, since two-term Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Levittown) recorded only 63% of the vote against weak opposition in his Republican primary. Now, an internal House Majority PAC poll (6/7-14; 403 registered voters of which 60% were conducted via cell phone and said to be at least “50/50” about voting in November) finds the Congressman leading new Democratic nominee Christina Finello, by a scant 45-44% margin. When leaners are added, the two contenders are tied.
Another survey was just released from a district that does not draw much national attention. Democratic pollster GBAO Strategies conducted their survey in late May but is just releasing the numbers now (5/28-31; 600 PA-10 likely general election voters). The results find Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/Harrisburg) opening with a slight 50-47% lead over State Auditor Eugene DePasquale (D) in what is again expected to be a close race. In 2018, Rep. Perry was re-elected with a 51-49% margin after the state Supreme Court ordered a re-draw of the Pennsylvania congressional districts.
A WPA Intelligence survey for the Club for Growth (6/17-18; 408 TX-13 likely Republican runoff voters) finds retired Admiral Ronny Jackson, who carries President Trump’s endorsement, now taking the lead over former congressional aide and current lobbyist Josh Winegarner in the upcoming July 14th GOP runoff election. The WPA results find Mr. Jackson holding a 49-41% advantage.
The poll appears accurate especially when seeing Winegarner immediately launch an attack ad against Jackson, suggesting that the former man’s internal polling also shows him falling behind. Retired Marine Corps helicopter pilot Amy McGrath and state Rep. Charles Booker (D-Louisville) are locked in a tight race in early counting, but we are a long way from seeing a conclusion to this race. An estimated 625,000 ballots are making their way through the postal system and have until June 27th to arrive at the intended counting center. At this point, just under 62,000 votes are being reported. Of that number, Ms. McGrath holds a 5,104 vote edge over Mr. Booker, or a 45-37 percentage split. The Secretary of State is indicating that no statewide totals will be released until June 30th.
On the Republican side, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has clearly been re-nominated with 87% of the counted vote. While it is probable that Ms. McGrath will win the party nomination, her victory will be unimpressive considering her 20:1 advantage in primary campaign spending, which gives Sen. McConnell a major boost to begin the general election. Despite the low returns, all six Kentucky House members were re-nominated last night. On the Republican side, the five incumbents scored between 88 and 94%. Rep. John Yarmuth (D-Louisville), though no votes have been reported in Jefferson County, is re-nominated since he was unopposed on the Democratic side. All six incumbents now become heavy favorites in what will likely be non-competitive general election contests.
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