Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategies (4/17-19; 625 TN registered voters) tested the all-but-certain general election contest between former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) and Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Brentwood). Like other recent polls, the M-D numbers project the former two-term Governor to be holding a slight lead. According to the results, Mr. Bredesen has a 46-43% edge. All of the traditional coalition groups are lining up as expected for their respective candidates. Ms. Blackburn’s biggest problem is trailing among Independents, 49-35%.
--Jim Ellis Former Governor and US Senator Lincoln Chafee, who served in Washington as a Republican, was elected Governor as an Independent, and then switched to the Democrats, says he is “90% sure” he will return to active campaigning this year. Mr. Chafee said yesterday he plans to challenge Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D) in the Democratic primary and will run as the Bernie Sanders candidate.
Sen. Whitehouse unseated then-Sen. Chafee in the 2006 general election. After losing, he returned to run for Governor in 2010, but as an Independent, and was able to win a three-way general election with just 36% of the vote. Faced with poor approval ratings and staring at defeat both in the 2014 Democratic primary and in the general election as an Independent, Gov. Chafee chose not to seek a second term in office. --Jim Ellis In addition to former Senator Lincoln Chafee potentially challenging Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse in the Democratic primary, Gov. Gina Raimondo, suffering from poor approval ratings, is also drawing a Democratic primary challenge it was learned yesterday.
Former Secretary of State Matt Brown, who was indicating he would enter the Governor’s race as an Independent, changed course and announced yesterday that he will challenge the first term Governor in the Democratic primary. Therefore, with challenges to both Whitehouse and Raimondo on the political horizon, the September 12th Democratic primary is unfolding as a major electoral contest. --Jim Ellis The Mellman Group, a national Democratic polling firm, tested the upcoming all-but-certain Senate general election campaign between first-term Nevada Sen. Dean Heller (R) and freshman Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-Henderson). According to the ballot test results, Sen. Heller is clinging to a 40-39% edge. In 2012, Mr. Heller scored a similarly close one-point victory over then-US Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-Las Vegas).
The Nevada Senate race is one of the nation’s premier Senate contests. It is a must-win for Democrats if they are to have any chance of taking control of the legislative body. If Mr. Heller is re-elected, the Republican majority will be secure. --Jim Ellis Little known Probolsky Research (data released 4/23; 900 CA registered voters) finds Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) falling into a closer June 5th jungle primary vote with former state Senate President Kevin de Leon (D-Los Angeles). The survey shows Sen. Feinstein commanding only a 38-27% lead over de Leon within the multi-candidate field.
A potential inaccuracy occurs, however, among Republican voters who appear headed to de Leon in stronger numbers than Sen. Feinstein. While it is possible that this is a function of the veteran Senator being negatively perceived among voters in the opposite party, it is strange to see them going in higher numbers for the more liberal candidate. Additionally, for a five-term incumbent Senator to be only scoring 38% preference in an open primary poll also raises accuracy questions. Previous polling has posted Sen. Feinstein to leads over de Leon of at least 26 percentage points. --Jim Ellis Former state Senate President Debbie Lesko (R-Peoria) successfully held the vacant northwestern Maricopa County district for the Republicans last night, scoring a 53-47% victory over physician Hiral Tipirneni (D). The turnout of 173,708 voters represented a larger participation rate than was found in the last midterm election (2014), becoming the fourth US House special election in this current election cycle to post such a ratio. With the addition of Ms. Lesko to the Republican Conference, the House party division is now 238 Republicans and 193 Democrats with four vacancies. The Republicans will lose one more member in May when Pennsylvania Rep. Charlie Dent (R-Allentown) resigns his seat as previously announced.
--Jim Ellis The just-released Goucher Poll (4/14-19; 617 MD adults) finds Gov. Larry Hogan (R) remaining in strong shape as he prepares for his re-election campaign. According to the survey, a whopping 69% of the respondents approve of the job he is doing as Governor versus just 21% who disapprove. Fifty-three percent believe Maryland is headed in the right direction, while 28% say the state has gone “off on the wrong track.”
Gov. Hogan fares well against his potential Democratic opponent as the state primary approaches on June 26th. Against Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker (D), the Governor’s margin is 44-31%. If Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz were to win the Democratic gubernatorial primary, Mr. Hogan’s advantage would be 45-28%. Former NAACP president Ben Jealous falls in similar territory. He would also trail the Governor 44-31% if he were the Democratic nominee. --Jim Ellis In an unusual move, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) scheduled the special election to replace resigned Rep. Blake Farenthold (R-Corpus Christi) for a period just over a month after the May 22nd run-off election. Arguing that the area needs representation in the final stages of the current congressional session because of issues involving the Hurricane Harvey clean up funding, Gov. Abbott received legal support from Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) to invoke an emergency election timetable to fill the vacancy. This means the normal deadlines governing the candidate filing period and election structure are superseded.
In this new contest, now scheduled for June 30th with the candidate filing deadline already upon us by close of business Friday, contenders will appear on one ballot with the top two candidates advancing to a run-off election to be scheduled at a later date. The Governor’s staff confirms that the secondary vote wlll occur sometime in early September. Both Republicans competing in the run-off election and Roy Barrera, one of two Democrats qualifying for that party’s run-off, say they will file for the special election. --Jim Ellis Northern Maricopa County voters go to the polls today to choose a successor to resigned Rep. Trent Franks (R-Peoria). The strongly Republican electorate is expected to choose former State Senate President Pro Tempore Debbie Lesko (R). Democrats nominated physician Hiral Tiperneni as the party standard bearer. Most polling has given Ms. Lesko almost a double-digit lead, though one survey from last week, from Emerson College, found Dr. Tiperneni grasping a one-point advantage. Emerson’s latest study, however, (4/19-21; 400 AZ-8 likely special election voters) returns the Republican to a 49-43% advantage.
--Jim Ellis In a developing story, the Colorado state Supreme Court late yesterday ruled that six-term Rep. Doug Lamborn (R-Colorado Springs) has been disqualified from the 2018 election ballot. Apparently the consulting firm Mr. Lamborn contracted with, Kennedy Enterprises, employed non-Colorado residents as circulators. Under Colorado election law, such circulators must be state residents. If not, all signatures gathered by individual non-resident circulators are void. Since the high court rejected all such ineligible petitions, Rep. Lamborn fell below the 1,000 minimum valid signature threshold to qualify for the ballot. Mr. Lamborn quickly responded by filing a lawsuit in federal court seeking to overturn the state Supreme Court’s decision. Other similar cases have been successful in federal court.
Both state Sen. Owen Hill (R-Colorado Springs), and El Paso County Commissioner and former US Senate nominee Darryl Glenn (R) were already challenging Lamborn in the Republican primary. Regardless of how the Lamborn situation ultimately unfolds, the seat will remain in Republican hands. --Jim Ellis |
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