Public Policy Polling, surveying for an undisclosed labor organization (3/23-25; 613 FL likely Democratic primary voters) tested the upcoming open gubernatorial campaign. According to their results, Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine, who has already been advertising on electronic media, has taken the lead over former US Rep. Gwen Graham (D-Tallahassee), 22-19%. Trailing well behind is Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum at 8%, and businessman Chris King with 5% support. Much time remains in this nomination campaign, however. The Florida state primary is not until August 28th.
--Jim Ellis So far, faring well in early polling and demonstrating strength in county party conventions, Democratic former state Treasurer Cary Kennedy continues to prove she is far from an “also ran” candidate. A new Magellan Strategies poll (3/20-23; 410 CO likely Democratic primary voters and unaffiliated voters who choose the Democratic primary ballot) finds US Rep. Jared Polis (D-Boulder) holding only a 27-23% lead over Ms. Kennedy. Far behind are former state Sen. Mike Johnston (D-Denver) and Lt. Gov. Donna Lynne who capture 8 and 5% support, respectively. Two-term Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.
--Jim Ellis Though candidate filing has already been completed, Maine state Senate President Mike Thibodeau (R-Waldo County) yesterday announced that he is dropping his bid to succeed term-limited Gov. Paul LePage (R). Originally, five Republicans, seven Democrats, and six Independents had filed to run in the statewide campaign. Though Gov. LePage is not supporting a particular Republican candidate, he did previously announce his opposition to Thibodeau. The general election is viewed to be a toss-up. The Maine primary is scheduled for June 12th.
--Jim Ellis It appears that Gov. Rick Scott (R) will soon become an official Senate candidate, a move that has been anticipated for more than a year. Yesterday, the Governor scheduled what he calls “a major announcement” for April 9th. The Governor has yet to commit to challenging Sen. Bill Nelson (D), but his vast wealth and universal name identification provides him the luxury of skipping the preliminary campaign organizational period. Though not a Senate candidate, an unconnected Super PAC has been advertising heavily throughout Florida pushing a Scott-backed issue agenda and extolling the Governor’s strong role in implementing positive change during his tenure in office.
Polling has consistently shown that a Nelson-Scott Senate race would be a toss-up, an unsurprising result in politically swing Florida. --Jim Ellis Four years ago, then-state Sen. David Ige (D) rocked Hawaii politics with his 66-31% rout of sitting Gov. Neil Abercrombie in the 2014 Democratic primary. Now, the tables appear to be turning. A new Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy survey (3/13-18; 800 HI voters; 498 HI likely Democratic primary voters) finds US Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-Honolulu) crushing Gov. Ige, 47-27%, if the August 11th primary election were held today. A series of mis-steps, including the highly publicized false alarm that the state was under an imminent nuclear attack, has hampered the Governor’s job approval rating.
--Jim Ellis Now that veteran New York Rep. Louise Slaughter (D-Rochester) has been laid to rest after she unexpectedly passed away on March 16th, candidates are beginning to announce for the vacant 25th Congressional District. Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) has yet to announce whether he will call a special election or allow the seat to remain vacant until the regular November 6th vote. If the special election is scheduled, the local political party leaders will determine nominees so no special primary election would be conducted.
Yesterday, supported by several individuals who were said to be considering their own candidacies, such as the late Congresswoman’s daughter, state Assembly Majority Leader Joe Morelle (D) announced his candidacy and immediately becomes the race favorite. Brighton Town Board member Robin Wilt also joined the Democratic field. On the Republican side, party leaders appear to be coalescing around surgeon James Maxwell who weeks ago launched a campaign against Rep. Slaughter. Area State Sen. Joseph Robach (R) announced that he would not run for Congress and will support Dr. Maxwell. --Jim Ellis A new WBUR Boston Public Radio poll (3/16-18; 504 MA registered voters) tested Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D) against two potential Republican opponents as she runs for her first re-election. According to the data, Sen. Warren posts a 53:36% positive to negative personal favorability rating. Paired with former state Consumer Affairs Department director Beth Lindstrom (R), Sen. Warren forges a 56-33% advantage. Against state Rep. Geoff Diehl (R-Norwell), Ms. Warren scores a slightly stronger 58-32%.
--Jim Ellis The first post March 20th primary poll was released into the public domain, and the Ogden & Fry/ABC News 7 survey (3/23; 667 IL registered voters) finds the new Democratic nominee, venture capitalist J.B. Pritzker jumping out to a commanding lead over incumbent Gov. Bruce Rauner (R). The data reports a 46-28% Pritzker advantage. Such a result is not particularly surprising. Gov. Rauner has poor approval ratings and failed to reach even 52% in his own Republican primary.
--Jim Ellis A new Strategic National poll (3/10-11; 400 NV-3 likely voters), taken just before 2016 Republican nominee Danny Tarkanian switched out of the Senate race and into this campaign, finds him substantially leading all of the GOP candidates who announced weeks ago. According to the data, Mr. Tarkanian scores a 37-10-9-9-1% lead over former television news reporter Michelle Mortensen, state Sen. Scott Hammond, ex-Assemblywoman Victoria Seaman, and former Clark County Republican Party chairman Dave McKeon, respectively. Upon Tarkanian re-entering the congressional campaign, Ms. Seaman withdrew her candidacy.
Mr. Tarkanian has fared well in Republican primaries, but has failed to win four different general elections. Should he again become the nominee, look for likely Democratic nominee Susie Lee, the Communities of Nevada School Board president, to be rated as the general election favorite. The 2016 race was decided by just one percentage point, and in favor of first-time candidate Jacky Rosen. The freshman Congresswoman is now running for the Senate. --Jim Ellis The aforementioned WBUR Boston Public Radio poll (See MA-Senate above) finds first-term Republican Gov. Charlie Baker in strong shape heading into his first re-election. With a favorability index of 66:14%, Gov. Baker leads Newton Mayor Setti Warren (D), 54-28%, and the latter man is actually fares best among the three Democrats tested. Though Massachusetts is one of the strongest Democratic states in the country, it has a penchant for electing Republican Governors. The GOP has won five of the last seven gubernatorial elections since former Democratic presidential nominee Michael Dukakis did not seek re-election in 1990.
--Jim Ellis |
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