Polling for the Democratic US Senate primary that will be held on Super Tuesday, March 3rd, has consistently shown very little separation among the 12 candidates running for the party nomination to eventually oppose veteran Sen. John Cornyn (R). Until a just released YouGov/University of Houston poll (2/6-18; 1,352 TX likely Democratic primary voters; online) found retired Army helicopter pilot M.J. Hegar putting some distance between herself and the rest of the field, no one had even reached 15% support in any survey.
YouGov sees Ms. Hegar posting 22%, fifteen points better than her next closest opponent, and suggesting that she will secure one of the positions for the certain May 26th run-off election. Battling for the second position are state Sen. Royce West (D-Dallas) with 7%, former Congressman and 2014 gubernatorial nominee Chris Bell (6%), and civil rights activist Cristina Tzintzun Ramirez (4%). Clearly, the Democratic nomination battle is still wide open, which gives Sen. Cornyn another major advantage heading into his third re-election campaign. The Senator was first elected in 2002 after serving as Texas’ Attorney General and on the state Supreme Court. Veteran Michigan US Representative Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph), formerly the House Energy & Commerce Committee chairman, finally announced yesterday that he will seek re-election. The Congressman was first elected in 1986. For months, Mr. Upton has been coy about his political plans but was raising significant money and printing 2020 election materials.
His southwestern Michigan 6th District is becoming politically marginal, so him again being on the ballot is important to Republican electoral prospects in the state and with regard to having any chance of re-claiming the US House majority. Rep. Upton was re-elected in 2018 with only a 50-46% over Democratic physician Matt Lonjohn in a competitive race. State Rep. Jon Hoadley (D-Kalamazoo) looks to be the leading Democratic candidate for 2020. Two Florida Democratic voters, who a Democratic former circuit judge represents, have filed suit to remove Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) from the Florida Democratic primary ballot and not count any Sanders vote that has already been cast in the early voting process. State election authorities report more than 244,000 ballots have already been cast. The lawsuit argues that Sen. Sanders, who is not a registered Democrat, fails to qualify as a partisan candidate in a state with a closed primary. The suit is not likely to gain legs because precedent has allowed the political parties leeway in determining who is placed on their primary ballot. The Florida Democratic Party opposes the suit.
A new survey from North Carolina based Public Policy Polling that was completed yesterday (2/23-24; 866 SC likely Democratic primary voters) for Saturday’s important South Carolina primary. The contest is critical for former Vice President Joe Biden who must score a victory here to reinvigorate his flailing campaign. According to the PPP results, Mr. Biden is now leading 36-21% over Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), returning to his earlier status in the state.
No other candidate reaches double digits. If this pattern were to hold, Messrs. Biden and Sanders would split the state’s 54 first ballot delegates. Billionaire Tom Steyer, who is making a major push in South Carolina, is clearly falling off the pace according to the PPP research. He posts only 7% here, tied with former Mayor Pete Buttigieg and one point behind Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA). It remains to be seen if this poll is forging a new trend or an anomaly. Tonight’s South Carolina presidential debate will feature seven candidates, as billionaire Tom Steyer has been added to the list of six contenders who appeared in Las Vegas. Therefore, the field will consist of former Vice President Joe Biden, Sens. Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Amy Klobuchar, ex-Mayors Michael Bloomberg and Pete Buttigieg, and Mr. Steyer.
While the Georgia Senate special election is running semi-concurrently with the regular election calendar, until yesterday there was no candidate filing deadline. Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger has now enjoined the special Senate race candidate filing with the regular election time line, which is March 6th.
While the special election filing schedule is now the same as the regular calendar, the special remains unique. Instead of partisan primaries on May 19th with a potential run-off on July 21st for all other races, the special jungle primary runs concurrently with the November 3rd general election, with a run-off on January 5, 2021 if no one obtains 50% in the first vote. Therefore, while the special Senate candidates are filing in early March, they won’t be on a ballot until eight months later. Yesterday, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee released a pair of polls from the Blue Grass State, but they are over a month old. Garin-Hart-Yang Research conducted a statewide Kentucky poll in mid-January (1/8-13; 802 KY likely general election voters) that gave Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell only a 43-40% edge over retired Marine Corps helicopter pilot Amy McGrath (D). In a similar time frame Change Research (1/17-21; 1,281 KY likely general election voters; online) forecast a dead tie between the two contenders at 41-41%.
This is a typical pattern for Mitch McConnell. In his last two elections, early and mid-campaign polling found him to be in a close race, and then he ran away with a 53 (2008) and 56% (2014) victory margin in each of those electoral contests. We can expect a similar pattern and result to occur in this coming election. Alabama Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-Mobile) is running for the Senate, so his Mobile area congressional district is open. The new Congressman will almost assuredly come from the Republican primary.
A Strategy Research poll for local television station WKRG Channel 5 (2/17; 2,000 Democratic, Republican, and non-affiliated voters; un-segmented) found the Republican race gaining definition, but likely headed to a run-off. According to their results, local Mobile County Commissioner Jerry Carl is leading among the likely Republican primary voters with a 29-21% edge over former state Sen. Bill Hightower (R). State Rep. Chris Pringle (R-Mobile) follows with 13%. Therefore, it is likely that Messrs. Carl and Hightower will advance to the secondary election if this poll is accurate. The Alabama statewide primary is on Super Tuesday, March 3rd. A run-off election would occur on March 31st. YouGov reported their latest findings for the critically important South Carolina primary to be held this coming Saturday. YG surveyed 1,238 online likely Democratic primary voters over the February 20-22 period, which represents the most recent poll released. Their data finds former Vice President Joe Biden continuing to lead here, as he has all year, now with a 28-23-18% split over Sen. Bernie Sanders and billionaire Tom Steyer. Polling has consistently suggested in the past two weeks that only those three are likely to meet the delegate allocation threshold. South Carolina has 54 first ballot delegates.
Almost 48 hours since the Nevada Caucus meetings began and six days since early voting ended, preference sheet tabulation is still not complete. We know that Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) will finish first, but the delegate total among he and the other two allocation qualifiers, former Vice President Joe Biden and ex-Mayor Pete Buttigieg, are not finalized. And, citing irregularities in the count because his internal tracking suggests different totals, Mr. Buttigieg’s campaign has petitioned the Nevada Democratic Party for a canvass of the results.
Right now, it appears that Sanders is leading with 40.7% of the aligned vote. Mr. Biden is second recording 19.7%, as compared to Mr. Buttigieg’s 17.1%. The Buttigieg numbers, however, show him surpassing Biden for second place. Delegate-wise, according to The Green Papers’ statistical website projections, Sanders will eventually clinch 24 bound delegate votes, Biden 9, and Buttigieg 3, once congressional district totals are added, but that could change if the latter man’s challenge is proven correct. Approximately 88% of the preference sheets are counted. Voters were instructed to rank their choices from one to three. If their first choice did not make the 15% threshold, those ballots are found, and their latter choices are then recorded in the aligned vote. Delegate allocation is based upon the aligned total. |
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