With a commanding 93% name identification, Cook County Commissioner Jesus “Chuy” Garcia is fast becoming the prohibitive favorite to succeed retiring Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D-Chicago). As the choice of the Chicago Democratic machine, such a result is not particularly surprising.
The Garin-Hart-Yang Research firm released results of their latest poll in this Democratic primary campaign (1/18-21; 400 IL-4 likely Democratic primary voters) and finds Mr. Garcia leading Chicago Alderman Joe Moreno and non-profit executive Sol Flores, 59-8-6%, respectively. We can expect an easy Garcia victory in the March 20th Democratic primary. Since, IL-4 is a safely Democratic seat, it appears that Mr. Garcia is the Congressman-in-waiting. --Jim Ellis A new Dan Jones & Associates survey (1/15-22; 400 UT-4 registered voters) provides more evidence that Rep. Mia Love (R-Saratoga Springs) has a re-election fight on her hands. According to the Jones’ organization, Rep. Love would hold only a 47-42% advantage over Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams (D). A similar poll taken three months ago, also from DJ & A, found an almost identical 48-42% split.
Though Rep. Love has won two elections in Utah’s 4th CD, her 50.9 and 53.8% victory percentages, along with losing in 2012 when GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney simultaneously recorded a huge 67.2 percentage, suggest that her base is weaker than one normally sees for a Utah Republican incumbent. --Jim Ellis In the middle of a public sexual harassment controversy and staring at a likely adverse redistricting situation, Rep. Pat Meehan (R-Chadds Ford) announced late yesterday in a letter to Speaker Paul Ryan and his local Republican chairman that he has decided not to seek re-election to a fifth term. Mr. Meehan’s decision now brings the House open seat count to an even 50, of which 35 are Republican-held.
The Philadelphia suburban seat had performed as a marginal political district though Mr. Meehan held it easily, averaging 58.9% in his four election victories. It’s craggily shape made it a natural for the redistricting argument, and this seat will come front and center in the subsequent re-draw action the state Supreme Court ordered earlier this week. A new 7th District will almost assuredly lean Democratic. --Jim Ellis Reports from the Beehive State indicate that former Republican presidential nominee and ex-Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney will announce his US Senate candidacy next week. Mr. Romney will be entering the race to replace retiring Sen. Orrin Hatch (R). Interestingly, it is believed that the presumed Senatorial candidate will bypass the Republican nominating convention and petition his way onto the primary ballot. With no major Republican expected to challenge Mr. Romney, this open seat race will likely be clinched the day he officially becomes a candidate.
The petition move makes sense. Romney is assured of attracting enough signatures to qualify for the ballot, and he would avoid even the potential of hitting a bump in the road at the partisan nominating convention dominated by delegates who are even more conservative than he. Assuming the reports are true, this is one open seat race the Republican leadership will not have to fret about keeping. --Jim Ellis Former Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner (D), who was clearly the Democrats’ top recruitment prospect to challenge Rep. John Katko (R-Syracuse), declared yesterday that she will not become a congressional candidate. Though the 24th District is politically marginal, Mr. Katko has performed very well, starting with a 59% defeat of incumbent Rep. Dan Maffei (D) in 2014. Rep. Katko was re-elected in 2016 with 58% despite being a top Democratic target and Hillary Clinton carrying the CD with a four-point margin.
--Jim Ellis Nevada’s 4th Congressional District was created in 2011, after the 2010 census awarded the state a new district in reapportionment because of massive population growth. Since that time, the electorate has yet to re-elect an incumbent Congressman. The original Representative was former state Senate Majority Leader Steven Horsford (D-Las Vegas). He would lose to then-state Assemblyman Cresent Hardy (R-Mesquite) in the 2014 Republican wave election. Mr. Hardy followed suit and lost to challenger Ruben Kihuen (D-Las Vegas) in 2016. Now with Kihuen retiring over sexual harassment claims, the two defeated members are attempting political comebacks.
Late last week, Mr. Hardy announced his candidacy. Yesterday, Mr. Horsford declared that he, too, will be a congressional candidate in 2018. The former Congressman still faces serious Democratic primary opposition in the person of state Sen. Pat Spearman, who says she will not yield to Horsford. Assuming he wins the party nod, the general election will feature a re-match of the 2014 campaign, but now between former Reps. Hardy and Horsford. This pairing would guarantee that one of the two returns to Washington. --Jim Ellis Investment advisor John Conyers III, son of resigned Rep. John Conyers (D-Detroit), filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission to become a candidate in the special election to replace his father. The special schedule will run concurrently with the regular election calendar. The younger Conyers named his new congressional committee, “Conyers to Conyers.” Also in the field of candidates is his cousin, state Sen. Ian Conyers (D-Detroit). The Democrats will hold the seat in November, but whether or not a Conyers carries the day still remains to be decided.
--Jim Ellis Former Navy Lt. Commander Gil Cisneros is fast becoming the leading Democratic candidate to replace retiring Rep. Ed Royce (R-Yorba Linda/ Fullerton). Yesterday, neighboring Congresswoman Norma Torres (D-Pomona) officially endorsed Mr. Cisneros becoming the seventh member of the congressional delegation to do so. The others are Reps. Pete Aguilar (D-Redlands), Grace Napolitano (D-Norwalk), Raul Ruiz (D-Coachella), Linda Sanchez (D-Whittier), Lucille Roybal-Allard (D-Downey), and Nanette Barragan (D-San Pedro). Mr. Cisneros has attracted many more state and local Democratic officials to his team. Money is no object for him, either. The candidate became a California lottery winner, when he hit a $266 million jackpot.
--Jim Ellis US Rep. Todd Rokita (R-Brownsburg/Lafayette) released the results of his early January GS Strategy Group poll, the second such survey conducted for his campaign. According to the study (1/6-9; 500 IN likely GOP primary voters), Mr. Rokita has expanded his advantage over fellow Rep. Luke Messer (R-Greensburg/Muncie) and former state Rep. Mike Braun (R-Jasper). According to the results, the western state Congressman leads his opponents, 24-9-9%.
The previous GS Strategy poll, released in July, gave Rokita a 20-14-1% lead over Rep. Messer and Mr. Braun. In this poll, both Rokita and Braun gained strength while Messer receded based upon their previous totals. Mr. Braun has been advertising heavily to increase his name identification and support base. The Indiana primary is May 8th. The winner faces first-term Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) in the November election. --Jim Ellis Attorney Scott Wallace (D), whose grandfather was Vice President Henry Wallace, filed candidate papers with the Federal Election Commission to enter the 8th District Democratic congressional primary. If he proceeds with his candidacy, Mr. Wallace will face attorney Rachel Reddick and non-profit organization executive Steve Bechler. The eventual nominee then challenges Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Levittown) in a race that has strong competitive potential.
Henry Wallace was Vice President during the war years of 1941-45, and served under President Franklin D. Roosevelt. He was dumped from the 1944 Democratic ticket at the national convention in favor of Missouri Sen. Harry Truman, who would obviously go onto become President. --Jim Ellis |
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