Alabama: Today's Election Day

At long last the voters go to the polls today in the Yellowhammer State to choose a permanent replacement for resigned Alabama Senator and now US Attorney General Jeff Sessions (R).  Polls are all over the board in the final days.  The preponderance of data gives Republican former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore an edge over ex-US Attorney Doug Jones (D), but one key survey comes to the clear opposite conclusion.  The last three studies: Emerson College (12/7-9; 600 AL likely special election voters), Monmouth University (12/6-9; 546 AL likely special election voters), and Fox News (12/7-10; 1,408 AL registered voters; 1,127 AL likely special election voters) provide very different ballot test results.
 
Emerson College finds Judge Moore leading, 53-44%; Monmouth sees a tie between the two men, with both registering 46% support; and, Fox News surprisingly forecasts Mr. Jones leading, 50-40%.  It has always been clear that turnout will determine the outcome today, and these polls certainly suggest such is the case. 

--Jim Ellis